LeBron James and the Lakers will host Steph Curry and the Southern California rival Warriors on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), in what could be a preview of the NBA Play-In tournament.
The stacked Western Conference has seen Los Angeles and Golden State alternate in ninth and 10th spots almost all season, with the 36-31 Lakers currently one game ahead of the 34-31 Warriors. Both teams have had moments of brilliance down the stretch, but have also shown numerous signs of weakness throughout the parity-driven campaign.
Neither team has played since Wednesday, so they should be pretty well rested for this Southern Cali battle. With the season series currently split at 1-1, we should be on a good run. Let’s dive into the odds and then break down the betting story we expect to unfold as we reveal our Lakers vs. Warriors. the best bets and the best accessories from BetMGM.
Lakers vs. Prediction Warriors, player props, bets against the spread and moneyline
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized NBA gaming operator.
- ETA: Lakers -2.5 (-105) | Warriors +2.5 (-115)
- Money line: Lakers -140 | Warriors +115
- Below: Or 233.5 (-105) | U 233.5 (-115)
Sportsbooks recognize the Lakers’ home-field advantage, as Los Angeles is 24-11 on Crypto.com and just 12-20 on the road. Golden State, however, has a better road record (17-14) than it does at home (17-17).
The Lakers have gone 24-22 against conference opponents this season and have won six of their last 10 games. The Dubs, meanwhile, have gone 17-23 in the West and have split their last 10 games 5-5.
Lakers vs. Predictions Warriors, better bets
One thing we cannot leave aside when analyzing this match: rest. The Lakers have gone 23-15 when enjoying the same bye as their opponents, while the Warriors have gone a miserable 17-26 in the same situation. With Los Angeles home, rested and seemingly in better health than the Dubs, we lean toward the local favorites.
Steph Curry (ankle) has missed three straight games, and Draymond Green (back) is listed as day-to-day after missing the Dubs’ loss Wednesday night in Dallas. The Warriors scored a measly 99 points in that game and were held to 113 or less in each of their previous two games against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs 14-52.
Even if Curry is expected to suit up, the Warriors probably won’t have enough firepower to keep up with Bron, AD and the Lakers at home. Los Angeles is averaging 117.8 points per game at home (top 10 in the NBA), while Golden State has averaged just 108.6 points per game in its last six road games.
Want an even more mind-blowing statistic? Since the beginning of November, the Dubs have lost a whopping nine straight road games to teams currently in the Western Conference playoff position (Mavs, Nugs, Clips, Suns, Thunder, Clips, Kings, Suns, Nugs ). That’s pretty brutal, and Golden State makes a pretty brutal bet against a (relatively) healthy and well-rested Lakers team at home in mid-March.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lakers 123, Warriors 115 – The Lakers gain (-175) and cover (-2.5), and the score ends ON the projected total (233.5).
Lakers vs. Warriors: support bet for the best player
Steph Curry Points: OVER 25.5 (-105)
If the Warriors lose this game, we don’t think it will be Steph’s fault. Curry scored 46 points in the Dubs’ one-point loss to the Lakers on Jan. 27 at Chase Center and then scored 32 in an 18-point win at Los Angeles on Feb. 22.
With his over/under rating modestly due to his questionable health and up-and-down production over his last 10 games, we view this as a prime opportunity. The greatest shooter of all time wouldn’t suit up if he wasn’t ready to accelerate against a major conference rival. Crush the OVER on the Chef and encourage him to cook another 30 point night.
