Zach Edey has been the best player in college basketball over the past two seasons and has been impossible to miss during this year’s NCAA Tournament, both because of his size and his production. He scored 53 points, grabbed 35 rebounds and blocked six shots in just 58 minutes of play to lead Purdue to the Sweet 16.
Depending on who you ask, that makes Edey a lottery pick prospect. Others believe that he is a certain failure in the NBA.
You can find some very smart basketball people on both sides of that argument, making Edey by far the most polarizing player in the 2024 draft class.
Here’s why there’s such a discordant divide in Edey’s assessment.
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Why Zach Edey should be a lottery pick
Edey is obviously a great player. At 7-4, 300 pounds with a 7-10 wingspan, his sheer size makes it impossible to stop him near the basket.
That has made Edey an incredibly productive college player. He is averaging 24.5 points and 12.1 rebounds for Purdue this season, shooting a spectacular 62.3 percent from the field.
If teams don’t send a lot of help to Edey when he has the ball in the post, it’s game over: he’ll make his way to the rim and score. That happens often because he is an excellent screen setter who can roll to the basket and use his strength to block almost anyone. He has good touch, particularly on his right hook shots.
Zach Edey scored 30 points, 21 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 assists against Grambling, helping Purdue advance in the NCAA Tournament. The projected 15th pick in the draft left little doubt about the outcome of this game with his dominant play on both ends of the floor. pic.twitter.com/pnZzFjuZmq
-Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) March 23, 2024
When teams bring in double teams, Edey is an improved passer. He can make basic reads to kick out 3-point shooters.
Edey is also a good rim protector, averaging 2.3 blocks per game. Purdue primarily uses him on deep drops, similar to what the Bucks do with center Brook Lopez. Lopez, who also struggles with lateral movement, was able to use that role to finish second for Defensive Player of the Year last season and has made two All-Defensive teams.
Edey will score and rebound at a positive rate once he is drafted. His size will make him an impact player from day one; only Victor Wembanyama and Boban Marjanovic can match him in height. Both have caused extreme problems for defenses due to their unique size.
Zach Edey’s Best Mock Draft Positions
| Board | Position |
|---|---|
| ESPN | 14 |
| SB Nation | 18 |
| The Athletic | twenty-one |
Why Zach Edey’s game won’t translate to the NBA
Edey’s game relies so much on post-ups that there are many people who feel it won’t translate to the next level. Those plays simply don’t exist much in the NBA because, while they still work as a change of pace, it is a pick-and-roll league.
Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid lead the league with about six looks off the post per game. They are the exceptions: almost everyone else doesn’t take any or limits themselves to one or two a night.
There have been other excellent college players in Edey’s mold who have failed to impact the league. Luka Garza and Drew Timme were the best players in college basketball thanks to their dominant post play. Garza was taken 52nd overall in the 2021 NBA Draft and has logged just 78 career games played. Timme went undrafted and eventually signed with the Bucks’ G League team. He has yet to play in an NBA game.
Edey has some weaknesses in his offensive game that NBA teams will exploit. He is not a shooting threat at all, which will allow his defender to stay in the paint and hinder his teammates’ driving lanes. While he has worked hard to improve his left hand, he is still very dominant with his right. He’s done the same with his passing, but he’ll have to recognize double teams more quickly because his processing speed isn’t up to par yet.
The big problem with Edey is on the defensive end. Like Garza and Timme, Edey doesn’t have the speed most bigs need to defend pick-and-rolls.
When standing near the basket, Edey can be very effective. Due to the lack of three defensive seconds in the college game, he can stay under the basket as long as he wants for Purdue.
The NBA game is different. Big men have to clear the lane every three seconds, and they have to defend near the 3-point line much more often because of how good NBA players are at making threes off screens. Laboring crosses have essentially become extinct because of how important it is to have mobility to protect those plays.
Slow centers are also problematic in transition. The NBA game is faster than the college game, with better athletes constantly pressing and trying to score early in the clock. Can Edey defend big men who run around the rim every night and who will try to run past him every time? That has given him problems at the university level.
Giants like Boban have been able to score and rebound at an incredible rate: the 7-4, 290-pound center has averaged 22.8 points and 14.8 rebounds per 36 minutes over his nine-year career. But he has only played 8.7 minutes per game because of how problematic he is on defense with his stiff hips and slow feet. Edey faces similar problems. Getting him to change direction on defense is like turning a cruise ship.
Despite those weaknesses, the information is that NBA teams are willing to give Edey a chance in a weak draft. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie, one of the most focused draft evaluators, been told constantly that “Edey is likely [to] be chosen in the first round, outside of the lottery.”
So, is Edey a lottery pick or more of a second-round flyer? His future success will ultimately be determined by his fit with whichever team drafts him.
He’s not the type of prospect you can plug in and play on any team. If a creative coach can surround him with shooters and defenders who can change positions to keep him close to the paint, then he has a path to becoming a good NBA player. He will still score effectively if those conditions do not exist, but he will give up more at the other end and will have a difficult time staying on the court.
Zach Edey’s worst mock draft positions
| Board | Position |
|---|---|
| Sport News | 29 |
| The ringer | 30 |
| No ceilings | 30 |
| bleach report | 32 |
| Tankathon | 33 |
