Is Oklahoma City getting enough respect as a legitimate title contender?
The Thunder were in first place in the Western Conference for half of March, rotating with the Timberwolves and Nuggets. However, they have more doubts than the other major teams.
Those three, along with the Celtics, have clearly been the best teams in the league in the regular season. That hasn’t translated into the betting markets. OKC has only the fifth best NBA Title Odds According to BetMGM to +1800, or about five percent implied probability.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why the Thunder are treated like children at the adult table. They are unproven and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only player in their starting lineup old enough to rent a car without having to pay an insurance premium.
The question arises: how seriously should we take the Thunder?
The Thunder would be the youngest NBA champion team
The Thunder would break many trends if they achieved the incredible. When weighted by minutes, their average age 23.3 The number of players on the court is the second youngest in the league this year, only behind the bottom Spurs.
The last five champions have been much older.
| Year | Equipment | Age |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | nuggets | 26.6 |
| 2022 | Warriors | 27.6 |
| 2021 | Dollars | 28.1 |
| 2020 | Lakers | 29.5 |
| 2019 | Raptors | 27.3 |
The youngest team to win a championship was the 1976-77 Blazers, led by 24-year-old Bill Walton. His 24.5 average age He was still more than a year older than the Thunder.
The Thunder’s starting five also don’t have much playoff experience.
SGA made the playoffs in its first two years, exiting in the first round both times. Back then he was a very different player. Lu Dort was a rookie during one of those playoff runs. Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey have not played in a combined game.
However, those young Thunder players have played in high-leverage games in other situations. Most of them have played deeply in international tournaments. They also participated in two games of the Sudden Death Play-In Tournament last season, upsetting the Pelicans before being defeated by the Wolves.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may be the best player in a playoff series
Leave the rest of the team aside for a moment. The playoffs often come down to having the best on your side. Shai has a chance of finishing in the top five in MVP voting and has a good chance of finishing second behind Nikola Jokic. Can his dominance in the playoffs be maintained?
The answer to that question should be a definitive yes. Gilgeous-Alexander was incredible over the summer leading Canada to its first World Cup bronze medal. He was probably the best player of the tournament and was named to the all-tournament team.
Shai has also excelled in other big games. In last year’s Play-In game against the Pelicans, he took over late. The Thunder trailed by six points at halftime and needed their star to save them. SGA scored 17 points in the third quarter, finishing with 32 for the game in a 123-118 victory.
At 25 years old, it wouldn’t be strange for Shai to take over the playoffs and get his first ring. Stephen Curry was 26 years old when he succeeded him. Michael Jordan and LeBron James were 27 years old.
There have been players who have won even younger. Magic Johnson took home Finals MVP at age 20. Kawhi Leonard took home the award, along with his first ring, at age 22.
Given SGA’s much-improved defense and unstoppable drives, he could join that kind of company.
Can the Thunder get the right matchups?
If you think the regular season is a good indicator of what will happen in the playoffs, then you should buy a ton of Thunder stock. They have beaten some of the best teams, compiling an impressive 30-18 against teams over .500. That’s the best mark in the Western Conference and behind only the Celtics at the top of the league.
However, that record has been somewhat mixed. The Thunder have definite strengths and weaknesses on their team. They have dominated the Suns, going 3-0 against them. They also did surprisingly well against the Nuggets, going 3-1.
The Nuggets were without their entire starting five in any of those losses, but the Thunder might present the toughest challenge for them. Denver’s defense has held up well this year, except when facing the Thunder, who have a lot of drive.
Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault brings unusual pick-and-roll combinations from all over the court, applying maximum pressure to nail down all of Denver’s help rotations. Because Jokic likes to defend high up the court, the Nuggets have to run behind him on those drives. That gives OKC a unique ability to poke and prod at his holes.
The Thunder’s number one weakness is, surprisingly, the Lakers. Los Angeles has the ability to resort to very big lineups, which presents many matchup problems. As good as Holmgren has been, he still weighs 208 pounds. The team’s big change of pace is 6-foot-6 forward Kenrich Williams. They added a true big in Bismack Biyombo midseason, but he hasn’t played much.
That Thunder-Lakers series is shaping up to be a potential 1-8 matchup. It’s something Oklahoma City should try to avoid.
As for what would happen in a Celtics-Thunder final? Oklahoma City took the first game at home. The second game will be played in Boston on Wednesday.
LOOK: Stream Thunder vs. Celtics with Sling TV
That will reveal another glimpse of the Thunder’s true potential. For now, it seems like they can compete with anyone. Don’t let their youth fool you: this is a team whose success should translate well to the playoffs.
