Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are expected to be named First Team All-NBA this season. They will meet in what should be an epic second-round series between the 57-win Thunder and the 50-win Mavericks.
The Thunder come in as the number one seed, but the gap between these teams isn’t as big as you might think. The Mavericks remade their team at the trade deadline, drafting starters PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. From that dateBoth teams tied with a 22-9 record, which was second best in the league behind the 25-6 Celtics.
The Thunder may have home field advantage, but this is as close a series as a 1-on-5 matchup can be.
Here’s what you need to know about the series.
Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction
The criticism against the Thunder was that they would be too young and too small to compete in the playoffs. They were manhandled by Jonas Valanciunas in their first-round series against the Pelicans, but that didn’t stop them from taking care of business with a sweep. His youth did not seem to be a particular disadvantage either.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, faced a difficult series in which the Clippers missed Kawhi Leonard. They don’t have traditional bigs like Valanciunas to punish the Thunder, but they do have great offensive rebounders in Gafford and Dereck Lively II. The rebounding battle will be key in this series and should be a big advantage for Dallas.
The Thunder present unique problems due to the protection combinations they use and their constant attacks at the rim. They were the Number 3 offense in the league behind that approach. The Mavs have two weaknesses on their defense in Doncic and Kyrie Irving, although both defended much better than expected in their first-round series. They will be evaluated frequently.
Despite some flaws, this Dallas defense isn’t as bad as you might think. After having teething problems early in the year, the Mavericks seventh in the league at that end of the post-trade deadline. They have very good rim protection with their two centers, and Washington has had by far his best defensive stretch as a forward since he was moved.
The Mavs are much stronger than a typical five seed. This will be a fantastic series with stellar stars making big plays. Ultimately, I give Doncic and Irving the edge over Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams because of that rebounding advantage and how well Dallas has played them in the regular season.
Prediction: Mavericks in seven
Thunder vs. Mavericks Betting Odds
The Thunder (-120) are barely favorites against the Mavs (+100) to win the series, via BetMGM.
Thunder vs. Mavericks regular season series
The Thunder and Mavericks met four times, with Oklahoma City taking a 3-1 series lead.
- December 2, 2023: Thunder 126, Mavericks 120
- February 10, 2024: Mavericks 146, Thunder 111
- March 14, 2024: Thunder 126, Mavericks 119
- April 14, 2024: Thunder 135, Mavericks 86
In their first meeting, the Thunder smothered a late lead, allowing the Mavericks to go on a 30-0 run in the fourth quarter. OKC ultimately held on and earned a close victory.
The second matchup featured the debuts of Gafford and Washington, who immediately acclimated to playing alongside Doncic. Dallas played at a breakneck pace, outscoring the Thunder 33-2 on fast break points.
The third and fourth confrontations were not useful for analysis purposes. Doncic missed both games and the Mavs rested most of their starters in Game 4 with their seeding already assured. The Thunder won both handily.
Key story of Thunder vs. Mavericks: How does the confrontation between Lu Dort and Luka Doncic develop?
After winning the scoring title this season, Doncic continued his dominance in the playoffs against the Clippers. They tried to use different schemes and throw a variety of looks at it. It didn’t really matter. He is so good at manipulating the defense that no game plan will be effective against him.
The Thunder at least have some guys who can do a decent job defending one-on-one. Lu Dort is coming off a series in which he absolutely tortured Brandon Ingram, helping him hold him to 34.5 percent shooting and 14.3 points per game.
They have “Luka” we have Luguentz Dortpic.twitter.com/WU8LejROYq
— ?????????? (@twowayshai) May 2, 2024
Dort did not have the same level of success during the regular season against Doncic, who shot 57.1 percent with Dort as his primary defender. based on NBA tracking data. Doncic will make even the best bullfighting guys look stupid sometimes.
The rest of the Thunder didn’t fare much better. Doncic shot 55.6 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three, averaging 34.0 points, 13.5 assists and 11.5 rebounds. against Oklahoma City this season.
Dort will have the biggest role as Luka’s stopper, but it’s a team effort to stop him. Cason Wallace is also a pest off the bench who can provide full-court pressure. Jalen Williams is a good on-ball defender with size. Gilgeous-Alexander has become a magnet for theft. And Chet Holmgren, of course, will be back there, where he was No. 2 in the league in blocked shots during the regular season.
The only thing that has worked in the past is trying to tire Doncic. If the Thunder hit the offensive glass hard against him, pick him up all over the court and put him in as many actions as possible, then maybe they can run out of gas by the end of the series.
Thunder vs. Mavericks Schedule
| Date | Game | Time (ET) | television channel |
| May 7 | Game 1 in Thunder | 9:30 pm | TNT, Sling |
| May 9 | Game 2 in Thunder | Determined | ESPN, Sling |
| May 11 | Game 3 at the Mavs | 3:30 pm | ABC, Sling |
| May 13 | Game 4 at the Mavs | Determined | TNT, Sling |
| Determined | Game 5 in Thunder* | Determined | Determined |
| Determined | Game 6 at the Mavs* | Determined | Determined |
| Determined | Game 7 in Thunder* | Determined | Determined |
* If necessary
