Denver was the popular choice to win the NBA championship heading into these playoffs. After falling behind 0-2 in the second round against the Timberwolves, they are now big underdogs (+400) to avoid elimination, according to BetMGM.
“They attacked us,” Nuggets guard Reggie Jackson said after Monday’s loss. “They literally just mistreated us.”
How did this happen to a team that went 16-4 in the playoffs to reach last year’s championship? Denver beat Minnesota in five games in the first round last year. These are not those same Timberwolves. Here’s why they were the perfect matchup to eliminate the defending champions.
Jamal Murray has been neutralized
Murray has had a miserable series, averaging just 12.5 points on a horrendous 28.1 percent from the field. That’s nothing new for him: he averaged just 17.3 points per game against the Wolves. in the regular seasondown from his 21.2 per game overall.
Murray has been hampered by a sore calf that bothered him throughout the end of Denver’s first-round series. He hasn’t had the same outburst and has clearly become frustrated. That was evident after he threw an insulated bag on the ground toward the referees during the game.
READ: Will Jamal Murray be suspended for throwing objects on the ground?
However, injuries are only a small part of this equation. Jaden McDaniels was out of the first round last year with a broken hand. He, Anthony Edwards and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have done an outstanding job with Murray and deserve a lot of credit for defending him at the point of attack.
The two-man game between Jokic and Murray has been contained because of how good McDaniels and Alexander-Walker in particular are at getting around screens. Having Rudy Gobert lurking in the paint also helps, although the Wolves didn’t even need him in Game 2 as he attended the birth of his son.
That trio has visibly overwhelmed Murray, as they did against the Suns’ big three in the previous round.
This Minnesota Timberwolves defensive possession is AMAZING pic.twitter.com/sNnRAx4qsB
– Kevin O’Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) May 7, 2024
The other notable part of Minnesota’s defense is its physicality. They do a great job directing the cutters, maintaining contact, and hitting Denver as they try to go through their series of moves. That has especially disturbed Murray. Referees have allowed a lot more contact as the season has progressed, and Minnesota’s hard-hitting defense has benefited from that change.
To make matters even worse for the Nuggets, backup point guard Reggie Jackson exited Game 2 with an ankle injury. If he’s not ready to play, then he’s even more reliant on Murray’s shoulders to figure out how to beat this defense. He still hasn’t had answers.
Nikola Jokic struggles with Minnesota’s size
It’s surprising that Jokic has been limited to just 24.0 points per game on 42.1 percent shooting from the field in this series. He shot 58.3 percent from the field during the regular season and rarely had a bad game.
There were warning signs that this could happen. The Timberwolves held Jokic to 48.5 percent shooting from the field in last year’s series. Gobert is obviously a problem as the presumed Defensive Player of the Year. Having him play a roving role opposite Aaron Gordon has made Jokic settle for tougher long shots instead of his usual bully ball at the rim.
The Wolves have been able to get away with that strategy because of how well KAT, Naz Reid, and even Kyle Anderson have held up as Jokic’s primary defenders. He hasn’t been able to overcome Minnesota’s size.
That strategy of throwing bodies at Jokic doesn’t usually work. Their unstoppable counterattack is having Aaron Gordon as a lob threat. Minnesota couldn’t take that away from him. just as effectively with Kyle Anderson instead of Gobert in Game 2. But with Gobert, that play loses much of its effectiveness. He is one of the only players in the league capable of changing Jokic’s shot while also getting Gordon back. No team has the size of Minnesota and they are proving to be Denver’s kryptonite.
Anthony Edwards is him
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will receive votes from the all-defensive team and could sneak onto the second team. He hasn’t stood a chance against Edwards, who has made him retreat easily for cubes. The Nuggets have tried Aaron Gordon at times, but Edwards has wasted him. Ant has averaged 35.0 points per game on 60.9 percent shooting from the field and has been the best player in this series by a mile.
Adding to that strength, Edwards has been on a streak from 3s, making 41.9 percent of them during the playoffs. Good luck trying to stop him as he hits two defenders and makes MJ shrug at his opponents.
Antonio Edwards.
Truly electrifying.He has up to 24 PTS in Game 2 on TNT ? pic.twitter.com/ogVdfhzaNR
—NBA (@NBA) May 7, 2024
The Nuggets don’t have a one-on-one defender capable of sticking with Ant, and they don’t have a rim protector when he gets past the first line of defense. He’s absolutely torched Jokic there.
Wolves target Nikola Jokic on defense
The Nuggets have tried to protect Jokic by having Aaron Gordon guard the much more capable Towns and placing Jokic over Anderson. The Wolves responded by using Anderson as an Edwards blocker, forcing Jokic to try to stop Ant from going downhill. That has gone as well as could be expected.
The Wolves haven’t just targeted Jokic on ball screens. They have also taken advantage of Denver’s propensity to charge on the strong side of the court, making quick passes to attack the opposite side. Jokic hasn’t been quick enough to rotate to the 3-point line on these plays.
Minnesota has also punished Jokic’s slow feet by having him guard with its big men. He couldn’t close fast enough towards Towns or Naz Reid. When Denver tried to hide Jokic in the guards, he was forced to go back to defending Anthony Edwards’ pick-and-rolls. It’s been a masterclass in how to exploit the Nuggets’ weaknesses.
So why hasn’t any other team been able to do this? It all goes back to the Minnesota staff. Tim Connelly built the Nuggets and knew all the cracks in their foundation. He has assembled another team with the perfect variety of size, perimeter defense and sharp shooting to hit Denver where it hurts.
It’s much more about how well-positioned the Wolves are than any kind of failure by the Nuggets. They crushed a very good Lakers team in the first round. But they don’t have the answers for Minnesota, and it shows in the first two games of this series.
