After four up-and-down years in the league, Patrick Williams is truly a beauty in the eye of the beholder.
Williams was selected with the No. 4 pick as one of the youngest players in the class of 2020. That required some patience with his development, and he has shown flashes of a very valuable player. However, more often than not, he has been injured or disappeared into the ground.
There is certainly potential. He is one of the best second draft prospects available this summer. The Bulls will have their free agency rights restricted, but will they be willing to pay if another team wants to make a big offer for Williams given his tight salary sheet and refusal to pay the luxury tax next season?
Here’s a look at Williams’ situation from all angles.
How much is Patrick Williams worth according to impact models?
There are two things that a player needs to have a high rating in a salary model: a lot of minutes and a good impact on the court.
So far, Williams has had neither.
The most publicly respected models speak in unison about their mediocre game.
| Metric | Worth | Range |
|---|---|---|
| DARKO | -0.6 | 220 |
| More-less estimated | -0.7 | 196 |
| LEBRON | -1.4 | 402 |
Williams expects to be paid like a good starter, but he seems more like one of the first off the bench. To make matters worse, he has averaged only 53 games per season.
Williams gave the Bulls about $5 million in production last year according to my salary model. If we can assume he will buck the trend and play a normal amount of minutes, then he would be worth just under $10 million.
However, that $10 million valuation isn’t entirely fair. Even after four years in the league, Williams is still only 22 years old. He’ll probably get better. How much is the question? Last summer he was reportedly seeking more than $20 million a year in an extension with the team. according to ESPN’s Zach Lowe. He would have to more than double his impact on the court to justify that number.
Is that kind of improvement possible? Yes. Is it likely? It would be an extreme outlier if that happened.
Even giving Williams an optimistic 25 percent better improvement than what he provided last season and good health, he would be worth around $12 million.
How much is Patrick Williams worth according to eye test?
Williams hasn’t been a great NBA player so far, but PWill optimists have a good case for why he will become one.
Williams was drafted largely for his physical tools. At 6-7 and 215 pounds with a 6-11 wingspan, he has the size and strength to guard the league’s leading scorers. He’s also been pretty good on that end of the floor, although his processing speed lags as a backup defender.
Williams will probably be a good defender, and maybe even get some hype for the all-defensive team over the course of his new deal at best. If his offense becomes passable, then he will easily become a $20 million player.
That offense is the problem. Williams has started 175 of his 213 games for the Bulls and has only scored 20 or more points 10 times. He has topped 30 points once, in a meaningless 82nd game of the 2021-22 regular season. More often than not, he completely disappears at that end of the track.
Williams was drafted with some hope of ball creation after playing point guard in high school. He can hit a mid-range jumper, but that’s about it. His ball handling is shaky, to put it kindly. He will regularly dribble it off his leg on his drives to the rim. He may make the occasional spectacular pass off the dribble or a thunderous dunk, but there will be weeks between those highlight plays when he doesn’t do anything of note.
The only area Williams is really good at is the three-point shot. He has made 41.0 percent of his attempts throughout his career. That sounds great on paper, but last season he only took 3.4 attempts per game, the most of his career. He will regularly pass out or hesitate, allowing the defense to recover. He has greatly accelerated the release of it, but it is still not rapid.
A plus-sized defender who can hit open 3-pointers is still a very valuable player in the NBA. He adds room for improvement and it’s easy to see why some team will be convinced to give Williams big money.
What should the Bulls do with Patrick Williams?
I’ve watched more than 90 percent of Williams’ games since he came to the NBA, including preseason and Summer League, and I still don’t have a good idea of the type of player he’ll become. There is a huge difference in the potential outcomes for him.
Williams optimists will point to players like Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Jaden McDaniels as examples of what he could one day become. That seems possible but very unlikely.
Here’s how he compares to those DARKO players:
A more intermediate result would be wings like Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes or Deni Avdija.
Williams’ low-end composition, whether his developmental spots are players like Saddiq Bey, De’Andre Hunter or Marvin Williams, good fringe starters or first off the bench.
So should the Bulls potentially bet $100 million over the next four years on one of these outcomes?
If I were the Bulls, I’d try to sign-and-trade Williams instead of making a long-shot bet on his development. He seems like a great candidate for a third contract and a very bad candidate for a second contract. He will likely underperform at least for the first few years of his new deal. If he ends up hitting, then he will be up for an even bigger deal and will have competition as an unrestricted free agent.
Instead of putting more time and energy into a player who hasn’t developed in your system, you would see if he can thrive in a different environment. If he ends up becoming a great wing in his mid-twenties, then the Bulls (or anyone else) may make a good offer down the road.
Patrick Williams’ Best Landing Spots
If the Bulls want to keep Williams, they will have to pay. Several of the league’s rebuilding teams have significant cap space to spend, and there aren’t many young players to spend it on. Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley are the only top options and have a chance of re-signing with their own teams.
Teams wanting younger players will have to choose between Williams, Isaac Okoro, Obi Toppin, Simone Fontecchio and Saddiq Bey. That’s a boring list. Williams stands out as the only guy with a lot of upside.
The Pistons have the most money to spend this summer. They are projected by Spotrac have 64 million dollars available. The Sixers, Magic, Jazz, Thunder, Spurs and Hornets also have enough to offer Williams more than $20 million annually.
In addition to the Thunder and Hornets, the Raptors have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Williams in restricted free agency. by Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. Other teams could participate in the draft, but would have to make moves to free up space or involve the Bulls in a sign-and-trade deal.
Williams’ role hasn’t been great with the Bulls. Like Lauri Markkanen before him, he could be one of those players who needs a change of scenery to thrive.
