The CURSE of the Community Shield: Why it could bring bad luck for Pep Guardiola and Manchester City after victory over Manchester United

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Manchester City secured the 2024 Community Shield by winning on penalties after drawing 1-1 with Manchester United at Wembley.

Jadon Sancho missed a vital penalty in his first game back in England after an altercation with manager Erik ten Hag. Jonny Evans also failed to convert his spot-kick, setting up City defender Manuel Akanji to score the decisive spot-kick.

Alejandro Garnacho originally gave United the lead in the 82nd minute when he came off the bench to beat Ederson, but Bernardo Silva equalised late on to force a penalty shoot-out.

Pep Guardiola’s side have snapped their woeful run in this competition and avoided a possible fourth consecutive defeat. But what does that mean for their hopes of winning the Premier League this year?

History can tell us…

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Why winning the Community Shield can bring bad luck

Since 2011, only one Community Shield winner has gone on to win the Premier League title that same season.

Here’s a look at how each season played out.

2011: Manchester United

United beat City the last time the sides met in the Community Shield, with Nani scoring in the last minute. They later found themselves five points clear of City in the Premier League with five games remaining. However, a draw against Everton and a defeat to City allowed their rivals to clinch the league title on goal difference.

2012: Manchester City

The following season, City beat Chelsea 3–2 but struggled to keep pace in the Premier League. They finished the season 11 points behind champions United, leading to the sacking of manager Roberto Mancini.

2013: Manchester United

United started the season with a 2-0 win over Wigan, marking the start of David Moyes’ tenure. Unfortunately, Moyes’ time in charge quickly deteriorated, resulting in his dismissal after just 10 months. The club fell to its lowest points total and league position in 22 years.

2014: Arsenal

Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal secured a 3-0 win over City at Wembley but their league title quest continued as they finished third. They did, however, retain the FA Cup with a 4-0 win over Aston Villa.

2015: Arsenal

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain’s goal gave Arsenal another win, this time against Chelsea. The Gunners were top of the league table on New Year’s Day. However, their form dropped and that led to them finishing second, 10 points behind surprise champions Leicester City.

2016: Manchester United

Under new manager Jose Mourinho, United won the Community Shield with a last-minute goal from Zlatan Ibrahimovic against Leicester, but finished sixth in the league. They did, however, go on to win the League Cup and Europa League.

2017: Arsenal

The Gunners needed penalties to beat Chelsea again in the Community Shield and finished sixth in the Premier League, missing out on Champions League qualification for the second year in a row. This season marked the end of Wenger’s 22-year tenure as manager.

2018: Manchester City

A Sergio Aguero brace secured victory against Chelsea, setting the stage for a successful season under Pep Guardiola. Unlike previous years, this was the only year in which the Community Shield winners did not falter in the league, as City won a domestic treble.

2019: Manchester City

City claimed another penalty shoot-out win over Liverpool in the Community Shield. However, they were unable to keep up in the league and finished second in a season interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

2020: Arsenal

Arsenal beat Liverpool on penalties in the Community Shield but their first full season under Mikel Arteta proved to be a struggle. They were 15th in December, but recovered to finish eighth for the second year in a row.

2021: Leicester City

Leicester City added another trophy to their collection with a late Kelechi Ihenacho penalty. However, they finished eighth in the league, with injuries and poor transfer decisions hampering their momentum after two successful seasons.

2022: Liverpool

Liverpool beat City 3-1 in the Community Shield, with Darwin Nunez the top scorer. However, their league campaign was poor, as they finished outside the top four for the first time since 2017, while City claimed the treble.

2023: Arsenal

Again under Arteta, the North London side won the Community Shield. This time it was against rivals Manchester City. As the Gunners failed to secure a league win against them the previous season, this victory gave them confidence that times were changing. Arsenal pushed them until the final day of the 2023/24 campaign but ultimately fell short once again.

2024: Manchester City

To be determined…

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