If you find yourself with a draft spot outside of the top 5-7 picks, chances are the top 3 running backs (Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall) are already off the board. For reference, according to FantasyPros ADP Consensus data, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are the 2 and 3 RBs and the No. 4 and No. 5 overall picks, respectively.
So if that turns out to be the case, the best strategy is to focus on elite receivers and not aim too high for a running back in the first round. But when things come down to the second round, it could be your last chance to get a top-10 running back. Isiah Pacheco and Derrick Henry are two names that pop up in that range that make for some interesting debate.
Pacheco and Henry are both aggressive running backs who sometimes run recklessly. They’re not the type of backs who are going to regularly bounce things outside and run east-west. Oh no, it’s almost exclusively north-south for these power hitters. Pacheco will be entering his third season, while Henry is back for his ninth. Pacheco is back with the Chiefs, but Henry has packed his bags and is now in Baltimore with the Ravens. After analyzing both situations, which one will prove to be the better draft pick?
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Should you select Derrick Henry or Isiah Pacheco at RB in PPR fantasy football drafts?
Fantasy Football Outlook for Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry
Henry has a much longer resume than Pacheco, who will be entering his third season. King Henry has racked up four Pro-Bowl seasons and an All-Pro season in 2020, but with that longevity also comes a lot more mileage. A behind-the-scenes look with Hard Knocks showed us that the Giants decided not to bring back Saquon Barkley on a new contract because he was past the age 27 mark, an age where running backs historically start to see some erosion in production. This will be Henry’s age-30 season.
In his All-Pro season, Henry became the eighth player in NFL history to surpass 2,000 rushing yards, finishing with 2,027. It was also his second consecutive season as the rushing champion. Henry suffered a broken foot after eight games the following season, but he was very healthy over the last two seasons with the Titans.
While he may have been healthy, the Titans offense as a whole certainly wasn’t. But Henry is no longer in Tennessee, as he’s now with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The positive side is that the offensive situation is much better. There’s no one on the roster who should really threaten his supposed use of the bell. Justice Hill remains on the team, and Keaton Mitchell starts the year on the injured list as he continues his recovery from a torn ACL.
RANKING OF POSITIONS AND PROJECT STRATEGY 2024
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
On the downside, there are more capable mouths to feed. In addition to wide receivers like Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashad Bateman, and Isaiah Likely, Jackson is a nightmare for defenders when he’s rushing and running himself. Jackson’s versatility and explosiveness, coupled with the fact that there are more weapons capable of catching passes, could limit Henry’s TD production despite being part of a better offense. Henry hasn’t historically been a great wide receiver, but he’s jumped to 33 and 28 receptions over the past two seasons, respectively. Before that, he averaged less than 16 receptions per season. They say you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, so we may have already seen Henry’s ceiling as a receiver.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
There isn’t a lot of data on Pacheco since he’s only entering his third season, so his case is harder to predict. What we do know is that Pacheco is one of, if not the, most relentless runner in the league. That can lead to some big-time runs and has helped him average 4.7 yards per attempt over his first two seasons.
During his rookie campaign, Pacheco only managed to haul in 13 receptions, none of which resulted in a score. However, especially after Jerick McKinnon missed some time, Pacheco began to make strides in the passing game. He ultimately recorded 44 receptions for 244 yards and two touchdowns, giving him nine total touchdowns on the season. McKinnon is no longer with the team, so Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Deneric Prince are backing him up, which could allow Pacheco to see his receiving numbers look like last season’s or even better, instead of regressing to his rookie numbers.
And just like Henry’s situation, Pacheco is also playing alongside an MVP quarterback — except in this case, Patrick Mahomes might be the best player to ever wear a helmet. That’s why it’s going to be important for Pacheco to continue to be a part of the passing game. Mahomes has shown over the years that he has no problem spreading the ball, as players like Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Blake Bell and others have given fantasy managers a hard time over the years when they’d rather see the big plays go to Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and other more fantasy-relevant players. In addition to Kelce and Rice, the Chiefs brought in Hollywood Brown, drafted sprinter Xavier Worthy and also just signed Juju Smith-Schuster for a second time. That’s a lot of buzz, but as long as Mahomes continues to spread the ball, Pacheco shouldn’t be impacted too much.
PPR RANKING 2024
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Given Pacheco’s running style, it’s worth keeping in mind that he’ll be able to stay healthy in 2024. Despite only playing two seasons, Pacheco has already suffered a broken hand, a torn labrum, cleanup surgery on the same shoulder, and a concussion that didn’t see him miss any additional games. Durability could end up being a long-term concern, but it’s not enough to set us back much this year.
The Verdict: Which Running Back Should You Draft?
That’s about as close as it gets. According to FantasyPros’ consensus ADP data, Henry is selected as the RB8 and No. 17 overall, and Pacheco is selected as the RB10 and No. 19 overall with Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne in between. As a reminder, ADP stands for average draft position, so that’s where they’re selected when considering all draftees. When you look at the consensus rankings, which take into account the rankings of 118 industry analysts, the story changes. Pacheco is ranked as the RB9 and No. 32 overall, and Henry is the RB11 and No. 39 overall.
So, experts think Pacheco will be the better running back, while the public gives the edge to the more familiar name Henry — which isn’t surprising when you factor in fantasy managers of all skill levels factored into the ADP numbers. Jugo Mobile a Pacheco as our RB8 and number 25 overall, while we have Henry as RB9 and number 30 overall.
While Henry is the more recognizable name, has a longer track record, and has shown more potential in the past, Pacheco is our pick here. Henry has been healthy the last two seasons, but there’s a lot of wear and tear on those wheels, and that’s a scary thing. Henry is 30 now, which is probably closer to 40 in running back years. Plus, he’s playing in an entirely new offense on a completely new team. Sure, that could end up being a positive, but it’s an extra variable to consider.
FANTASY 2024 AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Pacheco is younger, he probably hasn’t shown his potential yet, and he’s shown more receiving potential. You never want to miss out on an opportunity this early in a draft, but even if Henry outplays Pacheco this season, it shouldn’t be by much. Pacheco may have the highest potential at this point in his career, and the wear and tear on Henry’s body is too big a red flag to not give Pacheco the nod here.
