Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels finished 1-2 as the top picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. But when should fantasy managers select promising rookie quarterbacks in drafts this season?
Williams and Daniels have both been the talk of the preseason, as they have looked good running two exciting offenses that should be vastly improved. Williams has seen the Bears reload their key weapons, while Daniels has latched onto an ideal scheme with the Commanders. As two recent Heisman Trophy winners, they are well-positioned to continue posting satisfying numbers as they did as dynamic dual threats in college.
Despite their elevated status in April, neither Williams nor Daniels are among the top 10 QB picks in August. Let’s see which rookie is the best fantasy value as a promising player in the draft.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Caleb Williams’ 2024 Fantasy Rankings, ADP
Williams was QB12, which would be the last starting job in many leagues. According to Fantasy Pro Consensus RankingsHe is currently QB14 but has an average draft position of QB13. This would make him a solid starting option in deeper leagues and a priority asset in two-QB and Superflex leagues.
Jayden Daniels’ 2024 Fantasy Rankings, ADP
Daniels has moved up to QB11 in the rankings, now two spots ahead of Williams with the 49ers’ Brock Purdy between them. Drafters are a little less optimistic about Daniels, as his ADP is QB12. Regardless, that puts Daniels in the range of late starters in traditional single-QB leagues.
POSITION RANKINGS AND PROJECT STRATEGY 2024:
QB | RB | TE | D/ST
Caleb Williams’ Fantastic Prospects
The best fantasy season under Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron came from Geno Smith, who finished with a QB10 average after recording 4,282 passing yards and 30 TDs in Seattle in 2022. Smith padded his stats with 366 rushing yards and another TD. That’s a reasonable floor for Williams, who will play with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, fellow first-rounder Rome Odunze, running back D’Andre Swift and tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett.
Williams has better arm talent than Smith. He’s also better at creating plays based on the script, either buying time for big-time passers or scrambling to gain key yards. Williams can do more as a runner, including calling his own number near the goal line.
Williams definitely has the potential to score 30+ total touchdowns. He also seems reasonable to throw for 4,000 yards and add 400 yards rushing. Depending on scoring formats, Williams could average 18-20 fantasy points per game.
PPR RANKING 2024
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Jayden Daniels’ Fantastic Vision
Daniels is joining a Commanders offense led by Kliff Kingsbury. In four seasons with Kingsbury in Arizona, here are Kyler Murray’s scoring averages as a QB: 12th, 6th, 4th, 9th. Keep in mind that Murray has taken a step back the last three seasons thanks to a No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins.
Daniels will be free to run. He also has a cannon arm with Terry McLaurin leading a diverse and revved-up set of weapons. The Commanders have also invested well in the offensive line. Daniels has a naturally high ceiling in his first NFL season, as he’s likely to be in a two-way race with Williams for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Murray’s career highs with the Cardinals and Kingsbury were 3,971 passing yards, 37 total TDs and 819 rushing yards, all in 2020. A 3,600-30-600 line is reasonable compared to that. That would push Daniels to score 20-23 fantasy points per game, elevating him to QB-1 (QB6 or QB7) at worst.
FANTASY 2024 AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Should you draft Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels?
With their values crossing over to become closer to equal in drafts, there’s no doubt that Daniels, as more of a “cheat code” type QB than Williams, is the better draft value based on both floor and ceiling.
Murray and Kingsbury have produced parallel results recently, while Waldron has had mixed results with Smith. Williams and Daniels are both under-recruited. The latter’s potential, however, makes him the draft pick that will provide the best return on investment.
Bringing Daniels in the seventh round (or even a little earlier) is the choice over Williams in the eighth round.
STANDARD, NON-PPR RANKINGS 2024
Top 250 overall | QB | RB | Rep. | YOU | D/ST | K
