In a primetime “Battle of the Birds,” Jalen Hurts and the Eagles will host Kirk Cousins and the Falcons on Monday Night Football to close out Week 2 (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Philadelphia drew its first true home game of the season, coming off a win over Green Bay last Friday in the NFL’s first-ever game on Brazilian soil. Veteran fullback Saquon Barkley threw three TDs in his Eagles debut, and he’ll likely need to be fit again Monday because Philadelphia receiver AJ Green is out (hamstring).
Kirk Cousins’ debut with the Falcons didn’t go very well. The Pro Bowl QB threw for just 155 yards and a TD in Atlanta’s 18-10 loss to the Steelers, while also throwing two interceptions and getting sacked twice. Sophomore Bijan Robinson threw for 111 yards for the Falcons, nearly half of the Falcons’ total offense (226).
The Eagles are 13-4 at Lincoln Financial Field over the past two regular seasons. The Falcons’ road record over that span: 3-14. So this game could be over before it even starts, right? Don’t even dream about it. Trends are meant to be broken, and they play every game for a reason.
As I say every year, betting on prime time — and any game, for that matter — is all about identifying value. Here are my favorite value bets and best arguments for Eagles vs. Falcons on Monday Night Football.
Eagles vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
- Propagated: Eagles -5.5 (-110) | Falcons +5.5 (-110)
- More/Less: OVER 46 (-110) | UNDER 46 (-110)
- Money line: Eagles -250 | Falcons +200
The Eagles entered Week 2 as -6 favorites with a -275 moneyline, and the betting hasn’t changed the odds much. Despite Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown being ruled out over the weekend, as of Sunday night, BetMGM had 96% of moneyline bets and 84% of spread bets placed on Philly. Could this be the next big upset of the young season?
Should you bet on the Eagles against the spread against the Falcons?
Call me crazy, but this seems like a “prime” opportunity for a Monday night upset — at least against the spread. A rusty Kirk Cousins and the Falcons got punched in the mouth last week by a tough Steelers defense that flaunts T.J. Watt and PFF’s top-ranked defensive lineIn contrast, the Eagles sit at No. 28 on that list of 32.
Philadelphia wasn’t able to do much on defense last week in Brazil. The Eagles struggled to pressure Jordan Love and failed to make tackles near the line of scrimmage or in the open field. Had the field conditions in São Paulo been better, the Packers likely would have won and Love’s medial collateral ligament may be fine for now.
Love needed just 17 completions for 260 yards against Philly, while Pack leader Josh Jacobs had 18 passes for 104 yards. Wideout Jayden Reed needed just five Green Bay averaged 171 yards and two touchdowns! Green Bay averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per play, tied with the Super Bowl champion Chiefs for the most yards in Week 1.
Long story short, the Eagles defense is a lot worse than most oddsmakers seem to think. Bijan Robinson, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per touch as a rookie in 2023, could carve up this unit like the folks at Cleavers on South 18th St. in Rittenhouse SquareThe size of Drake London and Kyle Pitts, along with the speed of Ray-Ray McCloud, could also easily expose the Eagles.
The Falcons’ defense, meanwhile, is sneakily good. With a near-elite pass-rushing attack, run-blocking linebackers and one of the NFC’s most underrated secondary defenses, Atlanta should be ready to take on this challenge under the spotlight and after an embarrassing Week 1 loss.
Remember, the Eagles’ top receiver, AJ Brown, is out. That’s a bigger problem than the tiny 0.5 points that were taken off Philly’s spread. Brown’s absence should give Atlanta the luxury of selling out all of its games in a big way to stop Saquon Barkley on the offensive line.
This will simultaneously force Jalen Hurts to beat the Falcons with his arm, which is important. In Philly’s first 10 wins last season, Hurts averaged 31.3 pass attempts. In each of the Eagles’ first two losses in 2023, he attempted 45 passesAtlanta knows the recipe for success: bet on the Dirty Birds to cover, but eliminate them on the moneyline.
Our selection: Falcons +5.5 (-110), or Falcons +6.5 to -140 if you want extra protection.
Should you bet on the Eagles-Falcons OVER match?
Full disclosure: The 46 is exactly what my model projects as the final score, so I’m reluctant to put too much money into the total one way or the other.
If we are forced to play the total, we will likely buy it half a point higher at 46.5 and follow our Monday night plan with the UNDER (-120). This seems like the way to go if you are determined to attack the final score, especially when you consider that 64% of over/under bets are currently on OVER 46.
There are, however, alternative strategies that allow you to get better value than the current over/under ratio. Here are our two favorite strategies:
- Mini SGP 1:Hawks +7.5 and total UNDER 52.5 (+120 total)
- Mini SGP 2:Falcons OVER 19.5 and Eagles UNDER 27.5 (+175 total)
The first option gives us the opportunity to double our stake, or even more, despite adding two points to the Falcons handicap and adding another 6.5 points to our UNDER. It’s an extremely safe bet, but it’s a good example of how you can get creative to make things work in your favor in three different ways.
The second option is also creative and a unique alternative to simply betting on the underdog to cover. If you have the Falcons covering, there is a good chance that they will beat the bookmakers’ score predictions and/or the Eagles will not beat theirs. In this case, playing and drawing on both would net you a profit of almost $100 on a $36 bet.
Our selection: UNDER 46.5 (-120) for the game, or one of the above SGPs for positive odds.
Final score prediction: Eagles 26, Falcons 20
Best pillar player for Eagles vs. Falcons
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons at Eagles: Anytime TD scorer (-125)
Bijan accounted for more than 60 percent of the Falcons’ non-QB touchdowns last week (23 of 38), and he accounted for 49.1 percent of Atlanta’s total rushing and receiving yards (111 of 226). Still, the second-year running back didn’t have a touchdown to show for it, as only tight end Kyle Pitts found the rare gem for the A’s.
The Eagles gave up 163 yards and a TD to the Packers last week on just 21 rushing attempts (7.8 YPC). They also gave up 258 yards on 15 receptions by Green Bay’s top five receivers (17.2 YPR). will he needs to make at least one big play against this defense, and with rebounding incentives against the reigning No. 1 seed in the NFC, I like him to find the end zone.
Other top pillars for Eagles-Falcons: Jessie Bates III OVER 7.5 tackles + assists (+115); DeVonta Smith + Darnell Mooney UNDER 9.5 combined receptions (+105)
