The Oklahoma City Thunder are heavy favorites with the best NBA Finals odds. They won last year, of course, and currently have the best record in the NBA at 42-14. They’re odds to win it all are at a super low +130 price, which equates to a 43.5% winning percentage.
Essentially, the books are telling us that they think the Thunder have an above 40% chance to win the NBA Finals. That said, we have seen time and time again heavy favorites not ending up winning it all, and that number also tells us that there is roughly a 60% chance that the Thunder do not win the finals. So, who are the biggest threats making up that 60%?
NBA Finals Odds on the Top Sportsbooks
| FanDuel | BetMGM | DraftKings | Caesars | |
| Denver Nuggets | +600 | +550 | +450 | +500 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +1200 | +1300 | +1200 | +1200 |
| New York Knicks | +1300 | +1400 | +1300 | +1100 |
| San Antonio Spurs | +1200 | +1200 | +1600 | +1100 |
| Boston Celtics | +1300 | +1300 | +1500 | +1400 |
Rounding out the remaining teams to provide the full top 10 (including the Thunder) are the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers. One quick note is that it is interesting to see the Pistons as low as they are considering they are the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, by far, and only two games behind the Thunder for the best record in the NBA. They also have the second-best net rating in the entire NBA, only behind the Thunder.
That said, the Denver Nuggets as the team the most likely to upset the Thunder makes complete sense. They managed to force a Game 7 against this same Thunder team last year, and are a better team this year. The biggest issue surrounding the Nuggets is health. It is remarkable that they are still the third-seed in the Western Conference considering the amount of injuries they have dealt with, which includes Nikola Jokic himself missing a month with a knee injury.
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It is looking like a scarier and scarier proposition that the Nuggets will field a fully healthy squad in the playoffs, but if they do they are right up there in talent level with the Thunder.
Elsewhere, the San Antonio Spurs deserve mention considering there was a 12-day stretch in December where they beat the Thunder an astonishing three separate times, and then again in February. Of course, the Thunder did manage to get one win against the Spurs in January, but a 4-1 Spurs advantage over the Thunder is significant.
That said, it is hard to imagine the Spurs managing to win four playoff series in their first playoff run together with such a young team. Most teams that finally break through due so after failing for at least a couple playoff runs prior to that. That includes the Thunder, who list in the second round of the NBA playoffs in the 2023 season in six games to the Dallas Mavericks.
The biggest wildcard, perhaps, is the Boston Celtics. Many thought this was going to be a gap year for Boston considering all of the roster turnover and the torn achilles in the playoffs by Jayson Tatum, but they are currently the second seed in the East with the third-best net rating in the NBA. They’ve done all that without Tatum, who is rumored to actually make his return sometime this season, possibly as early as March.
Best NBA Finals Bet: Denver Nuggets (+600) FanDuel
At the end of the day, the Nuggets have the next-best odds to win the title after the Thunder, and for good reason. Nikola Jokic almost certainly would have won the MVP if he did not miss so much time with that knee injury, and is still widely considered the best player in the world. He is surrounded by defense, shooting, and a fantastic campaign by point guard Jamal Murray. It is not a complete shock to say that a healthy Nuggets team would be 50/50 in a playoff series against the Thunder, or only slight underdogs.
Health, of course, is a serious concern for the Nuggets who will be without Aaron Gordon for the foreseeable future, and he is a piece that they cannot live without in the playoffs.
Best NBA Finals Value Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves (+3500) DraftKings
The Timberwolves are almost considered an after-thought even though they have made it to back-to-back Western Conference Finals. Of course, they limped out of the playoffs in five games both times, but it is still impressive they made it that far two straight seasons. Their size between Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Naz Reid presents problems for the Thunder, and they made a great, under-the-radar acquisition at the trade deadline bringing in Ayo Dosunmu as the backup point guard. That was a huge need for the team.
Let’s not forget that the Timberwolves are led by superstar Anthony Edwards, who we have seen take over playoff games in the past and is one of the best big game players in the NBA. Late-game offense plagues the Timberwolves, but they are as well set-up as any to take down the Thunder in a playoff series. After that, we’ve seen them beat the Nuggets in a playoff series before, so we know that is not out of the realm of possibilities.
