The best time to bet on a line is when it first opens up at your preferred sportsbook. If you can’t make that happen, generally, the earlier you bet on it, the better.
By kickoff of that week’s games, NFL lines have diminished into some of the most efficient in all of sports (arguably the most efficient), meaning there’s often little room for positive expected value (+EV) on bets the later in the week you bet it. Nearly every angle has been covered by sportsbook traders and sharp bettors.
As the week goes on, NFL lines stabilize due to the trading of sharp bettors, news and injury updates, and other factors that influence the game predictions.
Many NFL betting operators now publish early hypothetical odds before the next week starts, and if you haven’t bet those already, attacking these lines Monday on the third playoff week is the next-best step.
Many of these lines will go through further refinement, and even if you can’t land the best closing-line value or haven’t already bet them at early, sharp-embracing books, you should have your say in these markets as soon as possible.
How should we attack opening and early odds for Patriots-Broncos and Seahawks vs. Rams.
All NFL Conference Championship betting odds and tips below are based on playoff lines current as of Sunday at 7 p.m. ET.
NFL Conference Championship Game opening lines and early line movement
AFC Championship Game odds
Opening lines (fresh as of Sunday 6 p.m. ET)
- Moneyline: Patriots (-250) • Broncos (+205)
- Spread (ATS): Patriots -4.5 (-110) • Broncos +4.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 41.5 (-110) • Under 41.5 (-110)
- Implied Point Totals Score: Patriots 23, Broncos 18.5
AFC Championship Game hypothetical lines (Saturday/Sunday on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Patriots (-225) • Broncos (+188)
- Spread (ATS): Patriots -4.5 (-105) • Broncos +4.5 (-115)
- Total: Over 40.5 (-110) • Under 40.5 (-110)
NFC Championship Game odds
Opening lines (fresh as of Sunday 10 p.m. ET at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Moneyline: Rams (+114) • Seahawks (-134)
- Spread (ATS): Rams +2.5 (-115) • Seahawks -2.5 (-105)
- Total: Over 47.5 (-112) • Under 47.5 (-108)
- Implied Point Totals Score: Seahawks 25, Rams 22.5
Hypothetical opening lines (Sunday pre-game ahead of Rams-Bears at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Rams (+106) • Seahawks (-114)
- Spread (ATS): Rams +1.5 (-110) • Seahawks -1.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 48.5 (-115) • Under 48.5 (-105)
Best early NFL Conference Championship Game odds to bet
Rams-Seahawks: Over 47.5 (-106) • FanDuel Sportsbook
The friendliest juice and total so far may still go down, given the talent behind these defenses, but I’m willing to double- or triple-tap on this one.
While we know the elite wide receiver matchup of Puka Nacua vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the main attraction, but these backfields (Rams’ Kyren Williams-Blake Corum, Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker III-Zach Charbonnet) could steal the show with their explosiveness.
There’s plenty of firepower to attack this early line, even if we lose closing line value.
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Broncos +6.5 or better • Wait on this line
No sportsbooks are offering this as the default, but the rapid climb from hypothetical odds that were Patriots -4.5 should keep streaming this one, now that Denver is turning to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in place of Bo Nix (broken ankle).
Best NFL Conference Championship sportsbook apps that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: