As we approach the first week of survivor play, some clear trends are already emerging with half of the entries nationwide landing on one of two teams – the Bengals and Bills.
Of course, survival picks aren’t just about winning Week 1. They’re about optimizing future value to stay alive as long as possible. This is precisely why the most popular team in Week 1 isn’t necessarily the best pick in Week 1. Analyzing pick popularity and considering long-term expected value are critical to NFL survivor pool strategy and, therefore, two of the five key NFL survivor pool tips.
Consider the following facts from our friends at Pool Genius:
- Survivor pools are rarely expected to be completed before week 7, regardless of size
- If your pool has more than 50 entries, you will likely need to survive until the last month of the regular season to win it.
- Beyond 100 entries, you should expect that in the majority of years the pool winner will have to survive the entire season (i.e. go a perfect 18-0).
Let’s take a closer look at the most popular pick of Week 1 and why the season-long strategy suggests going in a different direction.
Throughout the season, The Jugo Mobile teamed up with Pool Genius to bring you the best weekly tips on all things survivor pools. PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $6 million in winnings in NFL survivor pools.
Most Popular NFL Picks for Week 1 Survivors
PoolGenius’ #1 tip for pool strategy is to analyze the popularity of picks.
The Bengals enter this week as 8.5-point favorites against the Patriots, the biggest opening line in Week 1. Unsurprisingly, that also means the Bengals are the most popular NFL Week 1 survivor pick. PoolGenius’s NFL Survivor Picks Product gathers data published by the largest survivor pool sites and updates survivor pick popularity data throughout each week
Here are the six most popular Survivor picks as of September 1.
| Team | Opponent | Percentage chosen | Double |
| Bengals | against the Patriots | 36% | -8.5 |
| Invoices | against the cardinals | 14% | -6.0 |
| Saints | against the Panthers | 9% | -4.0 |
| The Seahawks | against the Broncos | 8% | -5.5 |
| The Bears | against the Titans | 5% | -4.0 |
| 49ers | against the Jets | 5% | -4.0 |
As you can see, half of all entries are either the Bengals or the Bills.
If the goal is simply to win Week 1, that makes sense. But this is about long-term value, and when you look more closely at the Bengals’ expected value for the rest of the season, this week presents a great opportunity to play the opposite.
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Bengals or Seahawks to pick NFL Week 1 survivors
Week 1 provides a classic case study of risk-reward while considering future value.
Think Bengals and Seahawks.
The Bengals are a Super Bowl contender and open at home against a team with Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots expected to win four games. They enter as the heavy favorites in Week 1 and for good reason.
And yet, looking at their schedule, this isn’t the last time they’ll be the heavy favorite. In fact, PoolGenius has the Bengals with the fourth highest future value. Burning the Bengals in Week 1 takes them off the board early, which is exactly the type of short-sighted play that could cost you dearly later. PoolGenius’ NFL Season Survival Chart lists Weeks 3, 9, and 17 as more valuable options for Cincinnati. Keep in mind that if your pool has more than 50 starters, you’ll likely have to survive until the final month of the regular season to win it.
Compare that to the Seahawks, who open at home against the Broncos and have the third-lowest odds of any Week 1 team. But unlike the Bengals — one of the true heavyweights worth keeping — the Seahawks rank just 21st in overall expected future value. In fact, according to PoolGenius’ weekly value, which combines win probability with pick popularity and future potential, Seattle offers more value than any other Week 1 team.
Of course, anything is possible and nothing is guaranteed. At least one team favored by 4.5 points or more in Week 1 has lost in each of the last eight seasons, which strongly suggests we’ll get a surprising result right out of the gate.
Such is the nature of the NFL survival game! It’s all about risk versus reward.
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