Ranking the Toughest and Easiest NFL Schedules for 2026: Which Teams Face the Biggest Challenges?

Free agency and the draft have come and passed. That means just one more significant event is on the way for the NFL’s offseason: the schedule release.

While teams do know which opponents they’ll play this fall, they do not know the order of those games quite yet. It may be a bit early to start game planning — but because opponents are already pre-determined, all 32 squads do have an idea of how difficult their path to the playoffs may be.

Things are sure to change by the time the 2026 season begins, but by using each team’s 2025 record, an early strength of schedule can be assessed.

Here’s a look at the hardest and easiest projected NFL schedules for the 2026 season. 

Toughest NFL schedule 2026

Chicago Bears (.550 opponent win percentage)

Last season, the Bears returned to the top spot in the NFC North behind Caleb Williams and first-year head coach Ben Johnson. Their path back to the playoffs, however, could prove difficult.

Chicago’s 2026 opponents had a collective .550 win percentage last year, which can partially be attributed to a strong NFC North division, but also because the Bears are set to host the Patriots, Eagles, Jaguars and Buccaneers, then travel to face the Bills, Panthers and Seahawks.

Who has the easiest NFL schedule in 2026?

Cleveland Browns (.429)

Based purely on teams’ 2025 win percentage, the Cleveland Browns would appear to have a favorable path to a good 2026 season behind new head coach Todd Monken.

Outside of AFC North play, Cleveland is set to face plenty of non-playoff teams from last year, including hosting the Colts, Falcons and Raiders, then traveling to face the Titans, Saints, Giants and Jets. 

2026 NFL strength of schedule rankings

Here is the strength of schedule rankings for 2026. No. 1 is the toughest strength of schedule based on 2025 win percentages, while No. 32 is the easiest.

Last season’s win percentage isn’t always a perfect way to assess a team’s schedule, however —a lot changes between offseasons, between coaching changes, signings, trades and the draft. 

Below is a look at Sharp Football Analysis‘ strength of schedule rankings based on their opponents’ projected 2026 win total from oddmakers, from easiest (Lions) to hardest (Cardinals). 

How is the NFL schedule determined?

Virtually every aspect of the NFL schedule process, outside of when the games are played, is predetermined — opponents are decided upon long before the schedule is released, which is why every team already knows its 2026 home and road opponents.

The NFL uses this formula to put together each team’s schedule:

1. Each team plays six divisional games, facing each divisional opponent three times at home and three times on the road (six games).
2. Each team faces all four teams from another division within its conference on a rotating three-year cycle (four games).
3. Each team faces all four teams from a division in the other conference on a rotating four-year cycle (four games)
4. Each team faces two more intraconference opponents based on the prior year’s standings. For example, because the Browns already play the entire AFC North and AFC South in 2026, they face the teams in the AFC West and AFC East that finished in the same spot in the standings as Cleveland did (fourth) the previous season. In their case, it’s the Jets and Raiders (two games).
5. Each team plays one additional game against a team from the other conference based on the prior year’s standings on a rotating four-year cycle. These games match a first-place team from one division against a first-place team in an opposite conference division that the team is not scheduled to play that season. The second-place, third-place, and fourth-place teams in each division are similarly paired. The home conference for this game rotates each season (one game). Using the Browns example, they will travel to face the NFC East’s Giants in 2026.