As one of the most popular teams in Europe, Inter travel to western Spain to face Atlético Madrid in the second leg of the Champions League round of 16.
The Italians have a 1-0 aggregate lead heading into the match, thanks to Marko Arnautovic’s heroics at the San Siro two weeks earlier. Last year’s finalists sit 16 points clear at the top of the Serie A table, and have a good case to make as one of the title contenders for this season’s European crown.
Atleti, for its part, could not go in a more opposite direction. While Inter have won 13 consecutive matches in all competitions, their Spanish opponents sit fourth in the La Liga table having lost five of their last eight.
Diego Simeone’s side have seemingly lost all consistency in attack, going goalless in the aforementioned five recent defeats. The drop coincides directly with the ankle injury of Antoine Griezmann, who could start here despite missing the last few weeks due to a sprained ankle.
Atlético de Madrid vs Inter Milan odds
Inter are the favorites in this matchup, but not as much as one might think for two teams with opposite tendencies: they have long money line odds, but have cavernous odds of 1/4 to advance.
BetMGM)
Inter possess one of the most impressive goal records in Europe, having conceded just 13 goals in 28 Serie A matches. While their xG differential of +9.77 suggests a fair amount of luck, they have also been in exceptional hands from goalkeeper Yann Sommer, whose extravagant xGOT differential of +5 (the best in Serie A) indicates that they can rely on their goalkeeper when the backline falters.
That combination has translated into European play, as Inter have conceded just five goals in seven Champions League games this year, three of them in the wild 3-3 draw against Benfica in Portugal. Inter have recorded three 1-0 wins against the likes of Benfica, RB Salzburg and Atlético Madrid in Europe this season, and that should continue here.
While Antoine Griezmann is back for Atleti, who have been much better at home than away this season, it is unclear how fit he will be, returning earlier than expected for this big game. Returning early from an ankle injury is not always good for attacking players, and Griezmann could be deprived of some creativity.
