Included in analysis of Warriors’ playoff chances:
- Remaining schedule
- Current Play-In Tournament Tiebreakers
- Western Conference standings
- Warriors playoff projection
The Golden State Warriors have become practically synonymous with the NBA Playoffs during Steph Curry’s time. In the 11 seasons since Curry’s breakout in 2011-12, the Warriors have made the playoffs nine times, collected five conference championships and won four NBA Finals.
But no trend lasts forever, and the 2024 Dubs have one of Curry’s worst healthy-season winning percentages since 2010-11. Golden State is fifth in the crowded Pacific division and 10th in the loaded Western Conference. Could this be the season that Curry and Co. finally fade into the “make the playoffs” futures market?
BetMGM He seems to think that Golden State missing the playoffs is the most likely scenario. The sportsbook has the Warriors at +225 to make the playoffs and -295 to miss them. The -295 translates to an implied probability of almost 75 percent.
Obviously, many factors come into play when evaluating a team’s chances of making it in: the Warriors’ remaining schedule, the current Western Conference standings, the NBA Play-In Tournament playoffs, and injuries.
Let’s weigh all the variables and evaluate the Warriors’ situation. BetMGM Odds to reach the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
Warriors’ chances of making the playoffs: Remaining schedule
The Warriors avoided the Play-In tournament last season, sneaking in as sixth seed. They beat the third-seeded Kings in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs, but fell in the semifinals to LeBron James and the Lakers (a Play-In team for the second time in three postseasons).
Now, both the Warriors and Lakers project to finish the season in Play-In territory, with Los Angeles currently sitting in ninth place and the Dubs 1.5 games back in 10th. As we well know by now, the ninth and tenth seeds must defeat two different opponents to make the playoffs.
The Warriors participated in the Play-In back in 2021, the first year it was first introduced in the NBA. As the 8th seed, they lost to (drumroll please), you guessed it, the Lakers! They then lost their Second Chance Play-In against Ja Morant and the Grizzlies.
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That disappointing finish didn’t keep Steve Kerr, Steph Curry and the Warriors down for long. A year later, Golden State went 53-29 and won the NBA Finals over Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics.
Curry and company are once again “fighting for their right to the playoffs” as it seems like the Play-In is their only way in (we’re rhyming now!). Let’s look at Golden State’s remaining schedule in the 2023-24 season.
| Date | Match | Opp. Record |
| April 2 | against Mavericks | 45-29 |
| April 4 | @ Rockets | 38-36 |
| 5th of April | @Mavericks | 45-29 |
| April 7 | against jazz | 29-46 |
| April 9th | @Lakers | 42-33 |
| April 11 | @ jackets | 19-56 |
| April 12th | against pelicans | 45-30 |
| April 14th | against jazz | 29-46 |
That’s about as middle-of-the-road as an end-of-season schedule can get in terms of difficulty. Two games against the Mavs are tough, as are road games against the Rockets and Lakers (Houston and Los Angeles are 26-12 and 27-12 at home, respectively). However, the Jazz and Blazers are struggling buses, and the Pelicans have felt the absence of leading scorer Brandon Ingram (knee contusion).
According Tankathon, the Warriors have the 13th easiest remaining schedule. They have a pair of back-to-backs, one on the road in Texas and the other in a B2B on the way home, but Kerr’s team has gone 10-5 on a bye and 9-4 on a bye handicap this season. This rest-of-season schedule tells us that the Warriors will almost certainly be in the Play-In, as they are 4.5 games behind New Orleans as of April 2.
Warriors’ chances of making the playoffs: Play-in tiebreakers
Of course, things get tough toward the end of the season, when the conferences have about as much parity as the West has right now. It’s important for us to know the NBA’s tiebreaker rules before placing future bets on the Warriors making the playoffs.
Here’s the order of the NBA’s official tiebreaker rules and how they could affect Golden State:
- Head-to-head record; best record in games with tied teams
- Division record; best record in games against teams from their own division (only if the teams are in the same division)
- Conference record; best record in games against teams in their own conference
- Winning percentage against playoff teams in their own conference
- Winning percentage against playoff teams in opposing conference
- Point difference in all games
The Warriors have won two of their three games against the Lakers this season, so their April 9 meeting could be crucial for Play-In seeding. Golden State has split its four-game season series with the Kings, so a tie between those teams in the standings would go to the divisional tiebreaker. Sacramento is 9-6 in divisional games this season, while the Dubs are just 6-9.
The only other team projected for the Play-In, the Suns, have a 3.5-game cushion over Golden State and beat Steve Kerr’s team 3-1 in their regular-season series. In some ways, it would be better for the Warriors to avoid the eighth seed so they can save themselves another battle with former Dub Kevin Durant. Of course, the loser of the 7-8 matchup gets a second chance to enter by beating the winner of the 9-10 matchup.
Warriors’ chances of making the playoffs: Western Conference standings
At 40-34, the Warriors have the 10th best record in the Western Conference. They are currently 1.5 games behind the Lakers in ninth place and three games behind the Kings in eighth place.
You can find the full Western Conference playoff picture below.
Registrations as of April 2
| Range | Equipment | Record | IS |
| 1 | Thunder | 52-22 | — |
| 2 | nuggets | 52-23 | 0.5 |
| 3 | timber wolves | 51-23 | 1.0 |
| 4 | Scissors | 47-27 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 45-29 | 7.0 |
| 6 | pelicans | 45-30 | 7.5 |
| 7 | Suns | 44-31 | 8.5 |
| 8 | Kings | 43-31 | 9.0 |
| 9 | Lakers | 42-33 | 10.5 |
| 10 | Warriors | 40-34 | 12.0 |
| — | rockets | 38-36 | 14.0 |
As we already mentioned, the Warriors’ exit from the NBA Play-In Tournament and sixth place finish seems extremely unlikely. The West is collectively on fire, with every team in the top 11 of the conference standings winning at least six of their last 10 games.
The Mavericks have won seven games in a row. The Pelicans have gone 26-19 in conference play and were fortunate to get dates with Western foes in seven of their last eight games of the season. Apparently, the only way for Golden State to enter is through the Play-In as a ninth or tenth seed. That means there will be plenty of work for Curry and his fellow veterans Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Chris Paul.
Warriors odds of making the playoffs: projection and best bet
With Golden State relatively healthy and Curry always a threat to go nuclear in the postseason, the Warriors obviously have a great chance to make the playoffs. However, it’s not a bet we’re willing to make, as they would need to get past two of the Suns, Kings, or Lakers to get there.
We love what we’ve seen from Jonathan Kuminga, an athletic specimen who continues to develop into a legitimate NBA force. But there are too many question marks on this team and too many veterans have taken a big step back this season.
Thompson has been a shell of his former Splash Brother self. Green continues to get into trouble out of frustration on the court. CP3 is still a great passer, but his offensive threat level has dropped dramatically in his age-38 season.
This season has had the most stacked Western Conference in years, and in turn, Golden State’s chances of trying to land another chip seem murky at best. Save your money for a higher-value futures bet: You can make a modest investment in the Warriors once their seemingly inevitable rebuild begins this summer.
Best bet: Vanish the warriors (+225) to make the playoffs. In any case, bet on Golden State (-295) miss the playoffs, but that’s worthless since you’d only win $17 on a $50 winning bet. Just tone it down and read our other article on why you should bet on the Lakers (-125) to make the playoffs.
