The New York Knicks have largely been declared winners this offseason, but at least one NBA scout doesn’t see it that way.
In an anonymous survey of NBA coaches, scouts and executives By Tim Bontemps of ESPNAn Eastern Conference scout spoils the Knicks’ party.
“I’m not convinced they are better,” the scout told Bontemps.
This scout had a dim view of the Knicks after losing Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency, paying near-max money to OG Anunoby and paying a high price to sign Mikal Bridges.
This scout, of course, appears to be in the minority. Many other league experts who participated in Bontemps’ survey approved of the Knicks’ decisions. In fact, after falling one win short of the Eastern Conference finals despite numerous injuries to key players, many believe the Knicks, now armed with forwards surrounding Jalen Brunson, should be an Eastern Conference contender.
However, not every team has a foolproof vision and there is a world in which this scout’s pessimistic projection is correct. It’s likely a thought that’s been floating around in the minds of Knicks fans throughout this offseason.
Here’s a look at how the Knicks might not live up to expectations next season.
Note: This is not a prediction of how the Knicks’ season will go. willpower Wow, that’s an attempt to make a realistic projection of how the Knicks could fail.
The central rotation is considerably weaker without Hartenstein.
The Knicks will miss Hartenstein this season. The center’s ability to pass and knock down shots in the paint helped propel the Knicks’ offense when they were shorthanded. While Hartenstein wasn’t exactly capable of stretching the floor, his ability to catch the ball on the move and make plays for others gave the Knicks a new dimension on offense.
At the moment, the Knicks don’t have a replacement for that.
There shouldn’t be much of a drop-off on defense between Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson (advanced metrics favored Hartenstein, but Robinson is also a strong paint protector and rebounder), and it’s worth noting that Robinson defended Joel Embiid better than Hartenstein did in the playoffs.
But depth is also a concern now. Robinson has played more than 70 games just once in his career and has played just 31 regular-season games twice in the past four years. He is coming off two surgeries on the same ankle. It seems fair to assume Robinson will miss more than 10 games this season, leading Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims to take on important roles. The Knicks can opt to go small, playing Julius Randle and Anunoby as their “big men,” but while that lineup should excel on offense, there will be some struggles on defense.
Bridges-DiVincenzo trade impacts offense more than expected
For now, it appears Bridges will take DiVincenzo’s place in the starting lineup, slotting him in alongside Brunson, Anunoby, Randle and Robinson.
On paper, it’s still a solid lineup. Bridges is a very good three-point shooter (career 37.5%) and a better one-on-one playmaker and scorer than DiVincenzo. He’s also a much better defender.
But the Knicks may miss DiVincenzo in ways that are harder to quantify. DiVincenzo was one of the three best three-point shooters in the NBA last year. He has a quick release and deep range and stretches defenses in ways Bridges likely won’t. DiVincenzo is also great at repositioning and moving without the ball. When defenses were focused on Brunson or Randle, it wasn’t uncommon to see DiVincenzo quickly slide into open space and line up a 3. It’s not that Bridges can’t or hasn’t done it, but Bridges just spent 1.5 seasons as the primary playmaker in Brooklyn. It may take him some time to get used to that kind of role without the ball. Defenses will rush. Just a little less to contest a Bridges three against DiVincenzo.
We’ve written before about how Tom Thibodeau’s first replacement next season should be DiVincenzo for Bridges. This would allow DiVincenzo to rejoin last year’s starters and make way for Bridges to run the second unit.
Make no mistake: The Knicks’ starters will be good, but don’t be surprised if swapping Bridges and Robinson for Hartenstein and DiVincenzo actually makes them a little more clumsy on offense.
Regression of players coming from career years
With so many injuries last year, several Knicks players were forced to play a lot of minutes. As a result, players like Brunson, DiVincenzo, Hartenstein, Josh Hart and Miles McBride arguably had the best years of their careers last season.
Hartenstein’s season was obviously so good that the Knicks couldn’t afford to keep him.
The other four players are still present, but will they have less of an impact in reduced roles?
With Bridges and Randle back on the team, Brunson’s load on offense will be eased. That’s a good thing for Brunson in the long run, as he shouldered too much responsibility on offense last season. The Knicks struggled to create offense when they relied on Brunson to out-dribble an opponent on nearly every possession.
But Brunson also finished fifth in MVP voting last season as the engine of the Knicks’ offense. Brunson is a scorer first and a point guard second. Brunson can act as a floor general and will get more opportunities to play next year. But his individual stats will dip, and it’s worth asking whether the Knicks’ offense is at its best with Brunson fully in charge.
DiVincenzo started last year on the bench and shined when he became a starter. He often made 10-plus 3-point attempts as a starter. Will he get that chance again this season, even in a sixth-man role?
Hart is the type of player who seems most effective when he gets a lot of minutes. Hart plays with pace and seemed (anecdotally) to get stronger as games went on, often making his best plays at the end, whether it be big offensive rebounds, clutch 3-pointers or coast-to-coast fast breaks. Fewer minutes should give Hart more energy to make those effortful plays, but with so many forwards on the Knicks’ roster, it’s also possible Hart’s pace will be affected by playing 20-25 minutes, rather than the 40-plus he averaged after the All-Star break last year.
Lastly, McBride remains an unknown. He’s always been a tenacious defender, but his 3-point shooting took such a big leap last season (11 percentage points from 2022-23 to 2023-24) that it’ll be worth watching to see if he can continue to be a 40% 3-point shooter. If McBride regresses to, say, 35% from 3 and doesn’t make a leap as a clutch player, it could affect the Knicks’ bench.
The East has improved
The Eastern Conference has improved during the preseason. The Boston Celtics are going nowhere. The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers have strengthened their rosters and have the same chance of reaching the Eastern Conference finals as the Knicks. The Indiana Pacers Reached the Eastern Conference finals Last year and they bring back the same group; they should be better. The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers should be stronger and should fight for 45-50 wins. The Miami Heat will never die.
These teams are likely to piggyback off of each other’s wins. Teams will have each other’s numbers unexpectedly. The Knicks could beat the Sixers one night and then lose to the Magic the next. Here’s how the East could go this year.
It’s not exact math, but it will be harder for the Knicks to substantially surpass last year’s 50 wins when the competition has improved.
The positive: The Knicks’ floor is higher than it has been in years
Here’s a silver lining: Even if all of these things hold true, the Knicks should still be very good.
Barring any major injuries (which would affect any team’s season), the Knicks still have a team that could easily feature 10 players on the back end. Brunson has proven to be a star point guard. The Knicks have plenty of shooters and defenders around him and a head coach who has proven capable of getting his team to win.
It would be very disappointing if the Knicks won 46 games instead of 53. But still, that win total should easily keep them in the playoff mix.
