Over the past seven years, the Bengals’ backfield has been primarily controlled by Joe Mixon. Whether or not fans believe Mixon is genuinely talented, he has parlayed his role into consistent fantasy production, especially during the Joe Burrow era. Mixon has been a top-10 fantasy RB for three straight years, with the fourth coming in 2018.
But Mixon was sent to Houston this offseason, leaving a glaring hole in the Bengals’ offense. Instead of making a splashy signing in free agency, the Bengals opted to fill that hole with multiple backs. Chase Brown was the Bengals’ 2023 fifth-round pick, and he showed explosive promise last season. Zack Moss came to Cincinnati from Indianapolis, signing a two-year deal in free agency.
It’s hard to predict that either player will fully take over Cincinnati’s backfield, but given how good this offense is, at least one of these backs should provide value at cost. The question is, which one will it be?
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
As is often the case with teams that use a running back-by-committee approach, there is no clarity on how the touches will be distributed. Without knowing each running back’s specific role, it’s hard to know which player is the best bet for fantasy purposes. But let’s take a look at each player’s fantasy outlook and decide who should be the top target in the upcoming drafts.
Battle of the Bengals: Should you draft Chase Brown or Zack Moss?
Fantasy Football Outlook for Zack Moss
Zack Moss isn’t exactly a world-beater, but he proved last year that he can be a useful starter in both the NFL and fantasy lineups. When Jonathan Taylor dealt with a hand injury early last season, Moss was a fantasy RB1. He finished as a top-10 RB in four of his five starts to open the season. Consistent top-10 finishes are an unrealistic expectation for Moss in Cincinnati; he dominated backfield opportunities in those five games, something he won’t do with the Bengals.
Moss’ path to success is handling a significant portion of the rush work early in the game, staying on the field for third downs by being a reliable pass blocker and playing a role on the goal line. He will undoubtedly handle a few from his rushing work, and his pass-blocking skills are certainly stronger than what we saw from Brown last year, giving him a leg up to earn the third-down role.
The key to Moss’ success will be his ability to win touchdowns inside the five-yard line. Mixon had 20 goal-line carries last season, second-most of any running back. The Bengals should continue to produce scoring chances at a high rate, which will lead to plenty of touchdowns for whichever back can earn that role.
PPR RANKING 2024
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Moss is currently being drafted as the RB32 in the mid-eighth round. The path Moss needs to take to be profitable at that price is to be a steady, reliable producer who rides in Burrow’s footsteps and capitalizes on touchdown opportunities.
Chase Brown Fantasy Football Outlook
Chase Brown played very limited last season, having just 44 carries and 15 targets in 12 games. But on those touches, Brown showed he has serious hitting and playmaking ability. His season was highlighted by a screen pass that he ran 54 yards to the end zone, a play on which he recorded the second-fastest speed of any running back (according to NFL Next Gen Stats) last season.
Brown has a level of explosiveness and an overall fantasy ceiling that Moss simply can’t match. The question is whether he can be reliable enough to be the featured defender. Two factors that could hold Brown back are his pass-blocking abilities and his ability to gain consistent, positive yards.
The sample size was small, but Brown was a complete failure in pass protection last year. His PFF pass blocking grade was a dismal 26.7. Brown was also completely held out of one game last year (Week 12) because head coach Zac Taylor didn’t think he was where he needed to be in pass protection. That’s something that could certainly improve in his second season, but it was a glaring red flag last year.
FANTASY 2024 AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Brown also struggled to keep the Bengals in time as a rusher. There were 77 different running backs who recorded at least 40 carries last season, including Brown. Of those 77, he ranked 76th. success rate for zone-concept rushes. He ranked 48th in that metric on rushes that utilized man/gap concepts. That essentially means he struggled to consistently produce yards that helped move the chains.
That theme continued into the preseason, where he had a few attempts to create big plays instead of taking the 4-5 yards that were blocked from him.
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Much like his rookie numbers, the preseason sample size was incredibly small and can’t be relied upon. But it’s clear that Brown will need to make some adjustments to be more reliable if he wants to break out the way many expect him to. Fortunately, Brown has been praised by the coaching staff throughout the offseason, which should give him more room to show improvement heading into his second year.
The Verdict: Which Bengals Running Back Should You Draft?
The best way to win fantasy football leagues is to bet on players with high potential and find the one who truly dominates. Sure, if Moss wins the starting guard job, he could finish the year with 15+ touchdowns and be on his way to an RB18 season. But Brown is the only Cincinnati back who offers top-10 potential.
An RB10 season (or better) would probably be a prime outcome for Brown, but that kind of season probably isn’t even in the mix for Moss. Brown may have shown some red flags last season, but he has the coaching staff’s vote of confidence and will have every opportunity to show the progress he’s made. It also doesn’t hurt that he could be drafted almost two rounds after Moss as the RB37.
POSITION RANKINGS AND PROJECT STRATEGY 2024:
QB | RB | TE | D/ST
