The offensive stars of the historically loaded 2024 NFL Draft class got off to a lukewarm start in early September. Many analysts and pundits sounded the alarm after several rookie quarterbacks and receivers posted misses in the first week.
Daniels, the reigning Heisman-winning QB and second overall pick, did not throw a touchdown in his first two NFL games for the Commanders. Harrison, wide receiver and the Cardinals’ No. 3 overall pick, had just one catch for four yards in Week 1. The Giants’ Nabers caught five for 66, a better start but still disappointing for selection no. 6 in a dynamic offensive class.
But oh, what a difference a few weeks can make.
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Fast forward to Week 4 and Daniels is 2-1 for Washington after upsetting Joe Burrow’s Bengals on national television. The LSU product completed 21 of 23 pass attempts for 254 yards and two touchdowns in the Monday Night Football victory, and he ran for 39 more yards and a score. The effort, crowned by a a penny to seal the game for Terry McLaurinwas widely discussed as one of the best QB performances of the year.
Nabers and Harrison Jr. took even less time to take the world of professional football by storm. Nabers followed a lukewarm Week 1 with 10 catches, 127 yards and a touchdown against Daniels’ Commanders in Week 2. He built on that with eight catches, 82 total yards and two touchdowns in a win by Week 3 against the Browns in Cleveland. .
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Harrison Jr. had perhaps the most dramatic change from Week 1 to Week 3. His unique opening weekend performance led impatient fans to label him a “bust.” The show he’s put on since Week 2 has some fans wondering if he might already be one of the best in the league. MHJ hauled in four passes for 130 yards in the Rams’ loss at Arizona in Week 2, then added five more catches for 64 yards and a score in a loss to Detroit in Week 3.
So who is the early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year? The QB with the winning record should be the favorite, right? Let’s take a look at the Caesars’ future, reveal where these three offensive studs rank on the ROY odds chart, and briefly discuss whether either receiver has a realistic chance of beating Daniels.
2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Chances courtesy of Césars Sports betting. Some ideas provided by PariMGM.
| Player | Odds |
| Jayden Daniels | +150 |
| Malik Nabers | +250 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +350 |
| Caleb Williams | +600 |
| Bo Nix | +1400 |
| Brock Bowers | +2500 |
| Xavier Digne | +4000 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | +5000 |
| Braelon Allen | +5000 |
| Keon Coleman | +5000 |
As you can see, the trio of Daniels, Nabers and Harrison Jr. are the clear favorites from the start. This is especially notable because Bears QB and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams has emerged as a favorite at all sportsbooks this summer, and Broncos QB Bo Nix represents the biggest liability for almost every major book to date.
Williams opened the PariMGM at +200 after the Bears selected him first, and subsequent action over the next two months reduced him to +120. However, a rough start in Chicago – coinciding with Daniels, Nabers and MHJ exploding onto the scene – pushed Williams to 60-1 odds.
Nix, meanwhile, remains BetMGM’s biggest liability. It represents more than 22 percent of all Off. ROY Tickets And the money bet. That might have a little to do with Denver and other states around Nevada betting a little more. The Broncos pulling off a big upset in Week 3 against the undefeated Bucs probably didn’t hurt either.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Why Daniels Will Win
Daniels has already had a bigger impact on his team year after year than any other offensive rookie.
Washington is 2-1, already halfway to its 2023 win total. The Commanders are coming off a huge upset victory over a perennial prime-time contender, a stunning performance in which Daniels had the looks almost perfect.
The 23-year-old silenced critics who said he “wasn’t that good” or couldn’t throw touchdowns, leaving the country speechless. nice push of 55 meters And this insane point that seals the gameboth in McLaurin.
Daniels has the keys to a Washington castle that was in desperate need of a new caretaker. Between the organizational blemish of disgraced former owner Daniel Snyder and the brutal leadership of 2023 NFL interceptions leader Sam Howell, a culture change was necessary for the football club that calls the nation’s capital home.
Daniels, head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury are delivering exactly that, and the results have been a lot of fun to watch so far. Kingsbury in particular might be the most crucial player for the rookie’s success. The coordinator can build on his successes and failures by coaching the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, a mobile QB with a strong arm just like Daniels.
Quarterbacks always seem to get bonus points from NFL awards voters, especially QBs with highlight plays who play for a good team and turn heads in big moments. Daniels has already checked a lot of those boxes, and the Caesars futures charts tell us that Washington (+4,000 to win the Super Bowl) is better than Arizona (+5,000) and New York (+22,500 ), so it’s safe to call Daniels. best bet right now.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Can Nabers or Harrison Jr. beat Daniels?
Anything is possible, as Kevin Garnett once shouted. Of course things are much more likely when teams pile up wins – but in the case of Rookie of the Year, raw talent often wins regardless.
Wide receivers – particularly Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson – have won Offensive Rookie of the Year awards the past three seasons. The other three winners in the last five years were QBs (Murray, Justin Herbert and most recently CJ Stroud).
If Nabers or Harrison Jr. flirt with rookie records and/or serve as the primary catalyst in a string of big wins this season, they’ll have a real chance. They’ve each already racked up huge stats and multi-touchdown games, and the Giants and Cardinals have suddenly demonstrated they can hang with the NFL’s big dogs again.
If Nabers and MHJ remain great, it could hurt their chances of winning the award if Daniels finishes with a winning record and/or has above-average numbers. The wide receivers could literally cancel each other out by splitting the first-place votes or drawing second and third behind Daniels.
Nabers’ biggest obstacle, however, is the fact that the Giants stink. Harrison’s biggest obstacle is that he’s dependent on Murray’s health, which has been a big question mark for the majority of the undersized QB’s career.
As of now, the race is far too uncertain to invest a boatload of future dough — but if we’re picking an offensive rookie of the year right now, it has to be Daniels.
