Revised Odds for Nets, Wizards, and Others Contending for the Top 2026 Draft Pick

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The NBA uses a lottery system to determine the first half of its draft order each year. 

Unlike the NFL, which uses the inverse of the previous season’s final standings, the NBA uses a lottery system that ranks the 14 worst teams by record and assigns each a percentage to determine the No. 1 overall pick. Each of the worst three teams receives the same odds to win the No. 1 pick, and the rest of the 11 remaining teams’ odds are staggered, getting worse and worse, so that the 14th worst team has the lowest odds to earn the top pick.

The NBA draft lottery has been a hot topic recently because last year the Dallas Mavericks had only a 1.8% chance of the top pick, yet was awarded it and brought in their Luka Doncic replacement in Cooper Flagg. 

Here is an updated look at the 2026 NBA Draft lottery standings, as teams hope to earn the No. 1 overall pick. 

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NBA Draft lottery standings

*Accurate as of the end of games on April 9. 

Pick Team Record
1. Wizards 17-63
2. Pacers 19-61
3. Nets 20-60
4. Jazz 21-59
5. Kings 21-59
6. Mavericks 25-55
7. Grizzlies 25-55
8. Hawks (via Pelicans) 26-54
9. Bulls 31-49
10. Bucks 31-49
11. Warriors 37-43
12. Trail Blazers 40-40
13. Heat 41-39
14. Hornets 43-37

NBA lottery odds 2026

Here’s a closer look at how the odds to land the No. 1 pick and a top-four pick break down. 

*Accurate as of the end of games on April 9. 

Pick Team No. 1 pick odds Top 4 pick odds
1. Wizards 14.0% 52.1%
2. Pacers 14.0% 52.1%
3. Nets 14.0% 52.1%
4. Jazz 11.5% 45.2%
5. Kings 11.5% 45.2%
6. Mavericks 8.3% 34.8%
7. Grizzlies  8.2% 34.4%
8. Hawks (via Pelicans) 6.0% 26.3%
9. Bulls 4.5% 20.3%
10. Bucks 3.0% 13.9%
11. Warriors 2.0% 9.4%
12. Trail Blazers 1.5% 7.1%
13. Heat 1.0% 4.8%
14. Hornets 0.5% 2.4%

Under the balanced NBA Draft lottery system, finishing with the league’s worst record gives a team only a 14 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick. The teams with the worst three records all have 14% odds of securing the top pick, with No. 4 (11.5%) and No. 5 (11.5%) not far behind.

For now, the Wizards, Pacers and Nets are all tied with the best odds to be awarded the first overall pick, with the Jazz and Kings not far behind. 

Last year, there was a controversy because the Mavericks earned the No. 1 pick, which they used to select Flagg, despite having only a 1.8% chance. This year, that would rank 12th. 

NBA mock draft 2026

Here’s a look at the mocked lottery picks from Jugo Mobile’ Steph Noh, whose latest mock draft came after the end of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. It is worth noting that the draft order could vary from the current standings. 

Pick Team Player School
1. Wizards AJ Dybantsa BYU
2. Nets Cameron Boozer Duke
3. Pacers Darryn Peterson Kansas
4. Jazz Caleb Wilson North Carolina
5. Kings Darius Acuff Jr. Arkansas
6. Mavericks Kingston Flemings Houston
7. Hawks (from Pelicans) Keaton Wagler Illinois
8. Grizzlies Brayden Burries Arizona
9. Bulls Yaxel Lendeborg Michigan
10. Bucks Mikel Brown Jr. Louisville
11. Warriors Jayden Quaintance Kentucky
12. Hornets Nate Ament Tennessee
13. Heat Aday Mara Michigan
14. Grizzlies (from Magic) Koa Peat Arizona
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