The Chiefs are in the AFC championship game for the sixth straight time with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. However, this is the first time they will be on tour with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Baltimore will host Kansas City in the Ravens’ first home conference title game (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS).
While the Ravens are trying to become the number one seed, which they failed to do in the 2019-20 playoffs, the third-seeded Chiefs are trying to reach Super Bowl 58 with a rare chance to repeat. Patrick Mahomes will be motivated to have a shot at his third ring, while Lamar Jackson looks to complete his breakthrough as a future two-time MVP.
Will Jackson and the Ravens, as 3.5-point favorites in a 44.5 over/under game, defeat Mahomes and the Chiefs? Here’s why that answer is no, and why the Chiefs will soon make a return trip to Las Vegas to win it all again on the turf of the archrival Raiders:
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sports Betting)
Chiefs vs. Picks Ravens, predictions against the spread
- The Chiefs offense against the Ravens defense
Mahomes has silenced anyone concerned about the Chiefs’ offensive woes. Aside from some hiccups in the red zone, the Chiefs have regained their rhythm in the playoffs. Rookie Rashee Rice is playing like a veteran wide receiver and tight end Travis Kelce has returned to playing with youthful energy.
The Chiefs have also leaned more on a running game fueled by Isiah Pacheco. The offensive line has improved in the playoffs, and even Mahomes is taking advantage of that added stability to rediscover his improvised throws, deep passes and timely runs.
The Ravens’ calling card, like the Chiefs, is their pass rush, but it’s been difficult to sack Mahomes because he can make so many big plays off script by scrambling. This possessed and focused version of Mahomes is what we’ve seen win Super Bowls in the second half before.
Advantage: Bosses
- The Ravens offense against the Chiefs defense
The Ravens will need to outplay the Chiefs to win. There’s no reason to think Jackson can’t handle a high-scoring affair after a performance in the divisional round that supported his most stellar passing season to date. The scary thing is that he hasn’t lost his running ability and hit the hundreds mark again against the Texans.
Jackson still leads a prolific rushing attack, now with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill needing to be the primary ball carriers. He distributes the ball well and should move Mark Andrews (leg) back to tight end to support Isaiah Likely. He also utilizes wide receivers beyond relying on rookie Zay Flowers in important spots on the field. First-year playmaker Todd Monken has adjusted to Jackson even better than he imagined, adding more explosive elements to the offense.
The Chiefs defense is nasty, but can be vulnerable against the run. His pass rush can also be neutralized somewhat by the running of Jackson and Edwards, and Jackson has multiple ways to find the best matchups.
Advantage: Crows
- x factors
The Ravens will look to beat the Chiefs with physicality and big plays. There is no indirect approach to defeating the champions, and Baltimore will have more confidence doing it at home.
The Chiefs, in a strange way, are not the favorites in these playoffs, as the Ravens and other teams have received more praise in the conference. There were questions about Mahomes, Kelce and Andy Reid’s plays, but all of them have been answered and erased for this penultimate round. Reid is more likely to have effective wrinkles and surprises that work compared to what the Ravens deploy.
Advantage: Bosses
- special teams
This is a tough battle. The Chiefs have a good trio with kicker Harrison Butker, punter Tommy Townsend and returner Richie James, but the Ravens can improve it with Justin Tucker, Jordan Stout and Devin Duvernay. Baltimore has a former special teams coach as head coach, one who will help ensure they don’t allow a big scoring return under Chris Horton for the second straight week. Kansas City has Dave Toub, but he sides with Baltimore for better past praise.
Advantage: Crows
- Training
John Harbaugh worked for Andy Reid as the latter’s longtime special teams coach with the Eagles before leaving for the Ravens, where he has been since 2007. Harbaugh got his first Super Bowl ring before Reid 11 seasons ago and is now trying to match the pair Reid has collected over the past five years.
Harbaugh has a great staff remixed with Monken operating the offense and Mike Macdonald putting together a stellar pass rush as part of his breakout year as an NFL defensive play-caller. Reid has experience with him with Toub and others. Steve Spagnuolo is the third key piece, leading the defense. The only thing that brings the Chiefs down a bit is the fact that they replaced Eric Bieniemy under Reid with Matt Nagy back for the offense. Looking back at last season, Harbaugh and his Baltimore staff deserve the edge.
Advantage: Crows
- Intangibles
Did you see Harbaugh do a crazy dance in the locker room? Did you see him quote inspirational Bible verses at his press conference? There’s something about this Ravens team that was missing in 2019 and, really, any previous version of Jackson-led playoff teams.
This team is more flexible as a favorite, with similar vibes to the 2012 group under Harbaugh that won it all as the fourth seed. Mahomes, Reid and Kelce have some narratives that fit together well, but the Ravens have a little more oomph off the field.
Advantage: Crows
AFC Championship Game Prediction
The Ravens will play well. The Chiefs will play well. This will be a classic matchup between Mahomes and Jackson, much like what we’ve seen with Mahomes against Tom Brady, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
Quarterbacks, offenses, defenses, special teams and coaches are positioned to lead either team to victory. In the end, the Chiefs are still alive in the playoffs thanks to Mahomes, and it’s tough to play him in such a monumental matchup.
Pick: Chiefs (+3.5) win outright 30-27 and total (44.5) tops
