When the opening bell rings for Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou on March 8, two boxing brains will be activated simultaneously. Both men will have practiced specific offensive and defensive drills in sparring, but doing it for real is very different.
This sport is both simple and complex. Essentially, the goal is to knock your opponents out of the fight by knocking them out. That is the best possible scenario. However, anticipating the opponent’s attacks and exploiting his mistakes is the true science of boxing.
For Joshua, the main advantage he has in this fight is experience. The Englishman captured Olympic gold in London 2012 and is a two-time unified champion. Of all the elite fighters in the pision, Joshua probably has the best grasp of the basics. His powerful left jab is very polite and sets up a wide arsenal of powerful punches.
Given that Ngannou (0-1) is a boxing rookie by comparison, Joshua’s best bet is to keep this simple. When Tyson Fury fought Ngannou last October, he rushed his work in an attempt to end things quickly. The consensus was that Ngannou didn’t belong in the ring with “The Gypsy King,” but we now know that the former UFC king knows enough to punish a world-class boxer when he takes liberties.
LOOK: Anthony Joshua against Francis Ngannou, live exclusively on DAZN
After punching, Fury would release his right hand and put his weight on his front foot. Taking up that habit, Ngannou timed him with a counter left hook and sensationally dropped the Manchester man in the third round. Ngannou was effective with that same counterattack before and after the knockdown. He lost an agonizingly close split decision over 10 rounds.
Joshua (27-3, 24 KOs) is a patient boxer and puncher. There is no reason to rush and the former champion can simply hit the target and wait for Ngannou to make the mistakes. After absorbing AJ’s left hand for a few rounds, one would expect the Cameroonian fighter to become desperate. When he does, that’s when Joshua can begin to fight back with intent.
Can AJ knock out Francis Ngannou?
When he began his professional career, Joshua racked up an impressive string of spectacular knockouts. However, as he increased the level of competition, the Englishman became more dependent on his boxing ability.
In fights against Wladimir Klitschko, Joseph Parker, Alexander Povetkin and in the rematch with Andy Ruiz, Joshua showed neat skills and sharpness. That approach was evident once again in his most recent victory over Otto Wallin in December.
But for all his talent, Joshua’s punching power remains formidable, as evidenced by an 89% knockout rate. Ngannou isn’t used to taking that kind of power in 10 rounds from an elite heavyweight wearing 12-ounce gloves.
Joshua is likely to win by knockout or knockout.
Can AJ surpass Francis Ngannou?
If the fight goes 10 full rounds, then it’s unlikely that Ngannou has done enough to earn a decision victory. Some would say Ngannou pushed Fury to the end and deserved the verdict, but there are questions about whether Fury was mentally and physically prepared that night.
Nobody sleeps with Ngannou again and you better believe Joshua’s team is studying him to death. Joshua is a diligent trainer and his new marriage to acclaimed trainer Ben Davison appears to be paying off. The former champion has completed 12 rounds on five occasions and will be prepared for a brisk and fast 10-round bout.
If this fight goes the distance, then Ngannou’s only hope of securing the decision is if he knocks Joshua down multiple times and wins anywhere from 10 to 8 rounds.
Who wins AJ against Ngannou?
AJ needs to keep his chin out of the way, but I think a fully prepared version of him knows too much for Ngannou and wins by knockout somewhere around the halfway point.
