There are five undefeated teams left in the AFC after two weeks, and we kind of expected the Chiefs, Bills and Texans given preseason expectations.
The Steelers and the Chargers? Who would have thought?
Pittsburgh has made it work the last two weeks with Justin Fields at quarterback. The Steelers are winning by identical total offense (260.5 ypg, 29th) and total defense (260.5 ypg, fifth). This defense is mean as usual, and Fields hasn’t turned the ball over. Mike Tomlin can make this recipe work all year in the AFC North.
Speaking of recipes, Jim Harbaugh has helped the Chargers win with a rushing attack that averages 197.5 yards per game, efficient play from Justin Herbert and the NFL’s second-best defense at 227.5 yards per game. That’s what Harbaugh used to win a national championship at Michigan last year.
Both teams can win in embarrassing fashion, which is why the Week 3 matchup at Pittsburgh’s Acrisure Stadium is a must-see game between two undefeated teams. Philadelphia also travels to New Orleans in a battle of 2-0 teams, and Baltimore takes on Dallas in a matchup of contenders trying to keep up in the standings.
Each week, we’ll be picking NFL games straight up and against the spread. This was a solid showing considering a busy Week 2 in the NFL:
- Directly: 21-11 (8-8 in week 2)
- Against the spread: 16-14-2 (9-7 in week 2)
Here are our picks for week 3:
NFL Predictions and Predictions for Week 3
Odds offered by Caesars
- New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (-6.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
Another AFC East division rivalry takes place on Thursday night. The Jets are balanced on offense, with Aaron Rodgers continuing to settle in, but they struggle on defense against the run. New England will favor a run-heavy attack around Rhamondre Stevenson to stay close, but Jacoby Brissett will have to take risks on the outside. The Jets haven’t won a home game against the Patriots since 2015, but that will change Thursday.
Take: Jets 24, Patriots 19
- New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Browns are at home, where they are 6-1 ATS as a favorite dating back to last season. Cleveland hasn’t forced a turnover in two games, but they’ll get a few here thanks to the pressure on Daniel Jones. The Browns will also rely on the ground game to score points. New York is generating three sacks per game, and that could be a game-changer if they can get Deshaun Watson. Otherwise, the Browns will be fine at home. New York is not a good road team, going 2-8 S/U dating back to last season.
Take: Browns 22, Giants 13
- Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Jordan Love (knee) remains questionable for a return, which could allow Malik Willis to face his former team. The Packers will rely on the running game behind Josh Jacobs in any event, and it’s up to Tennessee not to turn the ball over. The Titans have a -4 turnover ratio, and Will Levis has been sacked seven times. The Packers will take advantage of those turnovers, and they’ll overcome a strange statistic. Green is 0-3 S/U all-time at Tennessee.
Take: Packers 21, Titans 16
- Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bears will need to better protect Caleb Williams. He has a league-high nine sacks in two games, but they can keep him on the ground against a mediocre rushing defense that has allowed 237 yards per game through two weeks. The Colts also have issues, but Anthony Richardson will make some big plays at home to help Indianapolis avoid an 0-3 start. Williams is a coin flip with the possibility of late-game heroics, but we’re betting on the home team.
Take: Colts 20, Bears 17
- Houston Texans (-1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Vikings are a surprise team at 2-0, and Sam Darnold is providing consistent production with better protection — and Justin Jefferson, of course. Jefferson has eight receptions on 11 targets and is averaging 24 yards per reception. C.J. Stroud is 4-4 S/U in four career starts on the outside. He’ll connect with Stefon Diggs, who has 10 receptions on 12 targets with two TDs. Diggs, however, is averaging 8.0 yards per reception. The Vikings get another steal here and are starting to emerge as a real threat to win the NFC North.
Take: Vikings 26, Texans 24
- Philadelphia Eagles (-2) vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Eagles are coming off a short week and they’re facing the most surprising team in the group. Derek Carr leads the NFL with a 142.4 passer rating under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and that’s 11.4 yards per attempt. The Eagles look like a more balanced team with the addition of Saquon Barkley. That’s taken some of the pressure off Jalen Hurts. The Eagles were 4-4 S/U and 3-4-1 ATS as an away favorite last season.
Take: Eagles 27, Saints 21
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is arguably the best game of the week, and two former Ohio State players hold the keys to the showdown. Can Chargers running back JK Dobbins get going against a Pittsburgh defense that is giving up 76.5 yards per game? Justin Fields can build on his last two starts without a turnover. Harbaugh and the Chargers take advantage of the opportunity and improve to 3-0.
Take: Chargers 20, Steelers 19
- Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Baker Mayfield’s resurgence has been incredible to watch. He’s making quick decisions (73.5% completion), taking the running game seriously (55 yards, TD), and playing with the confidence that made him a star in college. That could be Bo Nix’s career trajectory going forward, but the Buccaneers’ time is now. Yes, Denver is in desperation mode, but the Buccaneers are the better team.
Take: Buccaneers 27, Broncos 17
- Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-7)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Raiders pulled off a stunning upset in Baltimore in Week 2, and they did it despite allowing 27 rushing yards. Expect Vegas to emphasize that running game early against the Panthers, who have given up 199.5 rushing yards per game over the past two weeks. Yes, the spread is high and Andy Dalton is an experienced starter, but the Panthers are 1-8-1 ATS as an away underdog since the start of last season. When will they show some fighting spirit? Gardner Minshew throws two TDs, and the Raiders get a two-TD cover.
Take: Raiders 28, Panthers 14
- Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Dolphins started Skylar Thompson in place of Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered another concussion in the Week 3 loss to Buffalo. Thompson can run the Dolphins’ offense, and Seattle struggled on the run last week without Kenneth Walker III. Geno Smith has a 73.9% completion percentage through two weeks, which ranks fourth in the league. The Dolphins need to disrupt that to have a chance on the road. The Dolphins are 2-9 S/U as an away underdog under Mike McDaniel, but they’re 5-6 ATS in that situation. Thompson will stay the course
Take: Seahawks 24, Dolphins 20
- Baltimore Ravens (-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Ravens lead the NFL with 417.5 yards per game, but they could fall to 0-3 if they lose in Dallas in the afternoon’s marquee game. What’s wrong with Baltimore? They blew a 10-point lead against the Raiders. The Cowboys gave up 190 rushing yards in Week 2, and Lamar Jackson is a challenge for that Micah Parsons-led pass rush. Are the Cowboys really going to lose back-to-back home games? Baltimore is 5-1 S/U all-time against Dallas. This will be the most entertaining game of the week as a result.
Take: Ravens 30, Cowboys 24
- San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Rams have been devastated by injuries to Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp in the first two weeks, making it all the more difficult for Matthew Staford without a strong running game. The 49ers are also coming off a tough road loss, but this is a division rival. Expect to see more of Brock Purdy, who had 319 yards passing in last week’s loss. The 49ers have won four of the last five meetings in San Francisco, but only once by more than seven points. Los Angeles will struggle in its home opener.
Take: 49ers 26, Rams 19
- Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
This is an interesting matchup between two 1-1 teams. The Lions are coming off a loss that exposed some old habits, and Dan Campbell acknowledged his time management blunder late in the first half. Amon-Ra St. Brown avoided a serious leg injury, and the Lions must rely on the running game against an improved Cardinals defense. The connection between Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. is also strong. This is a tricky matchup for Detroit, but Aidan Hutchinson, who has 5.5 sacks, will be the X-factor. The Lions are 5-1 ATS as an away favorite since last season.
Take: Lions 23, Cardinals 18
- Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
The Chiefs travel to Atlanta, where the Falcons will look to pull off an upset on Sunday Night Football on a short week. How do the Chiefs run without Isiah Pacheco, who broke his fibula in Week 2 against Cincinnati? That puts more pressure on Patrick Mahomes, but it’s nothing he’s not used to. Mahomes is also excellent inside. In 10 career starts in stadiums, he’s 10-0 with 23 TDs, two interceptions and a passer rating of 105.4.
Take: Chiefs 28, Falcons 21
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (-6)
Monday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
The Bills are at home for a Monday Night Football doubleheader. James Cook has been a big part of the offense with 198 total yards and three TDs. Trevor Lawrence has only one TD pass in two disappointing one-score losses. Jacksonville beat Buffalo 25-20 last season, and they’re playing with a sense of desperation here. Josh Allen, however, will be key in a game that will be decided a little higher than the over.
Take: Bills 30, Jaguars 27
- Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC
The battle between LSU’s Heisman Trophy winners Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels should be entertaining Monday night. The Bengals are in a must-win situation after a disappointing loss to the Chiefs. Ja’Marr Chase has just 10 receptions for 97 yards, and Tee Higgins (hamstring) is still recovering from an injury. The Commanders are one of three teams that haven’t turned over a ball in two games — a sign of maturity with Daniels being tested on the road. This should be Cincinnati’s recovery game.
Take: Bengals 31, Commanders 21
