The 49ers advanced to the NFC Championship game for the fourth time in five seasons. Their opponent in next Sunday’s matchup (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox) will be the Lions, who last played for the conference title 32 years ago.
San Francisco, the No. 1 seed, rallied to beat Green Bay, 24-21, in the divisional playoffs. Now they will try to beat another NFC North team at home. Detroit, the third seed, has eliminated the Rams and Buccaneers, also at home.
The 49ers were expected to make another deep playoff run, which they did after finishing 12-5 in the regular season. The Lions promised to win their division, but exceeded expectations with two playoff wins.
San Francisco enters the matchup as a seven-point favorite over Detroit with a total of 51 points. Will the 49ers avoid the upset and also cover the spread, despite the Lions’ push? Here you choose and predict the game:
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sports Betting)
49ers vs. Lions picks, anti-spread predictions
- The 49ers offense against the Lions defense
The 49ers had some issues with their usual explosive offense against the Packers. Quarterback Brock Purdy had trouble passing in the wet conditions and also had some trouble with Green Bay’s pass rush. The 49ers also had to adjust without wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who injured his shoulder and did not play in the second half.
Regardless of Samuel’s availability, Purdy should be much more alert this week. The Lions have a shaky pass defense in the back seven and often rely on blitzing to get to the QB under Aaron Glenn. The only advantage the Lions have is that top defensive end Aidan Hutchinson will avoid facing All-World left tackle Trent Williams and instead try to get to Purdy from the other side against Colton McKivitz.
The Lions don’t mesh well with either wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk or tight end George Kittle, Purdy’s top targets to stretch the field. They have a solid power run defense, but will also struggle with Christian McCaffrey’s outside running and elite receiving. They will have even fewer answers in coverage if Samuel plays.
Purdy had a rare bad home game in the divisional round. He will be much more comfortable destroying the Lions than the Packers, as Aiyuk will be a much bigger factor and Kittle will continue to be his go-to man in the middle of the field. Look for McCaffrey’s run to have the biggest impact in the red zone, with a good chance of him being busy on short passes.
Advantage: 49ers
- The Lions offense against the 49ers defense
Jared Goff on the road simply isn’t the same Lions quarterback when playing at home. This has been the case for two seasons. He also operates at a high level when his pocket is clear and defenses need to attack, opening up more favorable single coverage matchups. That won’t happen here.
The 49ers’ goal will be to stop David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in the running game first. They have been solid against the run, but teams often can’t hold up against them. They also weakened against Green Bay’s crafty and explosive veteran, Aaron Jones. That suggests Gibbs needs to be a factor, sooner and more often than against the Buccaneers. The rookie was fantastic with his speed and quickness to help Detroit pull away late in that game.
If the 49ers can stop the run on early downs more often than not with the help of their offense to build a significant lead, they can be relentless in getting to Goff with a front-four pressure fueled primarily by defensive end Nick Bosa.
The 49ers will have some issues in the slot against wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, but hope they fix things after giving up some big passing plays to Jordan Love and the Packers. The 49ers also tend to cover tight ends well thanks to linebacker Fred Warner, which isn’t good news for rookie Sam LaPorta.
Detroit will need to find a way to find an effective running game in a tough situation, like it did against Tampa Bay, to have a chance to keep up with San Francisco offensively. Otherwise, it would be a long afternoon for Goff at his Northern California home.
Advantage: 49ers
- x factors
The 49ers have more offensive depth and versatility than the Lions, even though the latter have a great play-caller in Ben Johnson. The 49ers could always use wrinkles with additional running backs and receivers to exploit more matchups behind the big three or four for Purdy. Defensively, Glenn found good pressure against the Buccaneers, but there are limited sources beyond Hutchinson. The 49ers have more defensive impact in their front seven.
Although Goff led the Rams to Super Bowl 53, there isn’t the same level of playoff experience elsewhere on the Lions roster. The 49ers are full of smart players with a lot of experience who know the pressure that comes with this game.
Advantage: 49ers
- special teams
The 49ers have a rookie kicker in Jake Moody. His punter, Mitch Wishnowsky, is solid, but not spectacular. Meanwhile, the Lions have found a field goal man with money in the well-traveled Michael Badgley. Punter Jack Fox has the potential to dominate as a former Pro Bowler. In the return game, the 49ers have A-OK Ray-Ray McCloud. The Lions will be hoping Kalif Raymond can return from his knee injury to provide a spark.
Advantage: Lions
- Training
Dan Campbell has been fantastic in leading the Lions’ turnaround. Johnson and Glenn have been outstanding coordinators. That said, it’s tough to give them an advantage with Shanahan on the other side calling the plays and Chris Foerster among his key offensive assistants. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has also been there and has carried on the tradition of his predecessors DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh.
Advantage: 49ers
- Intangibles
The 49ers have been to the championship game in three of the last four seasons before this latest appearance. However, they only won once, four years ago against Green Bay. They have since lost to the Rams and Eagles. The pressure will be on Shanahan to make another breakthrough, especially since the 49ers have been the best team in the NFC for most of this season.
It’s a cliché, but the Lions are actually “playing with the house money” by playing this game, as many thought they might lose to the Rams in the wild card round. Already aggressive, Campbell will coach as if Detroit has nothing to lose and everything to gain. The Lions will be more flexible and the 49ers will need to execute better as a compact ship.
Advantage: Lions
NFC Championship Game Prediction
The Lions have had a great run, but it’s coming to an end as they simply don’t have enough defense to stop all of the 49ers’ weapons around Purdy. Goff will be under more pressure throughout the game and his back will be less of a factor than McCaffrey. Aiyuk and Kittle will also explode for bigger games than St. Brown and LaPorta. Bosa and the defense flexed again in the fourth quarter to close the door.
Pick: 49ers win 34-20 and cover the spread (-7), and the game OVER the total (51).
