Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: Who has the advantage?

When the Chiefs face the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, it will likely be a battle between the last two NFL MVP winners.

That doesn’t happen often.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the Chiefs in the AFC championship game for the sixth straight season. Mahomes won his second AP NFL MVP award last year and is looking to win a third Super Bowl this season.

Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is the favorite to win his second AP NFL MVP award this season. He previously won the award in 2019 and the Ravens will host the AFC championship game for the first time in franchise history.

This is the best quarterback matchup left in the postseason, and there is some precedent with two-time MVPs on conference championship weekend.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: Which QB is better in 2023?

Jackson had the best regular season in 2023. He finished with 3,678 passing yards with 24 TDs and seven interceptions despite not playing in the final game of the season. He also had 821 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Ravens finished 13-4 and earned the first seed in the AFC playoffs.

Jackson entered the playoffs with a 1-3 postseason record, but responded with 152 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and four total touchdowns in a 34-10 win against Houston in the divisional round. This is Jackson’s first AFC championship start.

Mahomes struggled in the regular season by his standards. He finished with 4,183 passing yards (his lowest total since 2019) and 14 interceptions (his highest total in the same period). Mahomes still threw 27 touchdowns in 16 games while working with a young group of receivers.

The playoffs, however, have been a different story. Mahomes was 40 of 64 for 477 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, and led the Chiefs to wins against Miami and Buffalo, teams that had identical regular-season records.

Mahomes is 3-2 in AFC championship games as a starter. He has thrown for 1,515 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions in those games.

History of NFL MVPs in conference championships

If Jackson wins a second NFL MVP award as expected this year, then he would become the 11th player to take home the award more than once, joining the likes of Peyton Manning (5), Aaron Rodgers (4), Tom Brady (3). , Brett Favre (3), Jim Brown (3), Johnny Unitas (3), Mahomes (2), Joe Montana (2), Kurt Warner (2) and Steve Young (2).

In a notable championship matchup between MVP winners, Baltimore and Cleveland met in the NFL championship game in 1964. Brown led the Browns to a 27-0 victory against the Unitas-led Colts.

Manning and Brady met in the conference championship round four times, and Favre and Young had a head-to-head matchup in the NFC championship game.

The last time back-to-back MVPs met in the AFC championship game was 1979. Pittsburgh beat Houston 27-13 in an AFC championship matchup that featured ’78 NFL MVP Terry Bradshaw, and ’79 NFL MVP Earl Campbell. The Steelers also beat the Oilers 34-5 a year earlier in the AFC championship game.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: Past matchups

Jackson and Mahomes have met in four head-to-head matchups, and the Chiefs are 3-1 in those games.

Jackson averaged 187.5 passing yards per game with a 56.2 percent completion percentage, four touchdowns and two interceptions in those matchups. He also averages 75.8 rushing yards per game with three touchdowns.

Mahomes averaged 369.8 passing yards per game with a 71.8 percent completion percentage, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in those matchups. He also added 35 rushing yards and a touchdown.

A look at the matchups:

Chiefs 27, Ravens 24, overtime (December 9, 2018)

The Chiefs tied the game at 24 with a five-yard touchdown pass from Mahomes to Damien Williams in the final minute, and Harrison Butker kicked the winning 35-yard field goal in overtime. Mahomes finished with 377 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Jackson had 147 passing yards, two touchdowns and 67 rushing yards.

Chiefs 33, Ravens 28 (September 22, 2019)

The Chiefs blew a huge lead at Arrowhead Stadium with a 23-point second quarter. Mahomes, who finished with 374 yards and three touchdowns, connected with Mecole Hardman for an 83-yard touchdown pass to really open things up. The Ravens scored 15 points in the fourth quarter, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback. Jackson had 267 passing yards and 46 rushing yards in the loss.

Chiefs 34, Ravens 20 (September 28, 2020)

Mahomes threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns in a road test at M&T Bank Stadium on Monday Night Football. Second-quarter touchdown passes to Hardman and Tyreek Hill helped the Chiefs build a 27-10 first-half lead, and the Ravens couldn’t catch up. Jackson had 97 passing yards with 83 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Ravens 36, Chiefs 35 (September 19, 2021)

This was the best matchup of the four and a possible preview for Sunday’s game. The Chiefs took a 35-24 lead with 6:50 left in the fourth quarter on a 46-yard touchdown pass from Mahomes to Travis Kelce, but Jackson rallied the Ravens with consecutive touchdown runs on the next two possessions. Baltimore held on to win. Jackson had 239 passing yards, 107 rushing yards, three total touchdowns and two interceptions. Mahomes had 343 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception in the loss.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: The new standard?

Every elite quarterback matchup will be compared to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and it just isn’t fair.

Manning and Brady met four times in the AFC championship game. Manning won three of those matchups while he played for the Colts and Broncos. Manning won the AP NFL MVP award five times and Brady won the award three times. However, quarterbacks never won those awards in consecutive seasons.

Manning shared the NFL MVP award with Steve McNair in 2003. The Colts lost to the Patriots 24-14 that season. Manning also won the award in 2013 with Denver, then led the Broncos to a 26-16 victory against New England in the AFC championship game. Brady won the NFL MVP in 2007 and 2017, and led the Patriots to victories against the Chargers and Jaguars, respectively, in AFC title games those seasons.

Mahomes has also faced Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow twice in the AFC championship game. Burrow, however, has not won the NFL MVP award. That’s why this confrontation with Jackson is a little more glamorous.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: Who advances to Super Bowl 58?

The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in the AFC championship game, but they’ll have to prove they can stop Mahomes in this matchup once and for all.

The Chiefs have dominated the AFC under Mahomes, and the added attention of the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift relationship has only put more attention on that success. Kansas City will be tough to beat.

Jackson, however, is playing at an MVP level and has a chance to silence the remaining critics with a run to the Super Bowl.

Which team can score more than 24 points? That’s the statistic that matters. Baltimore allowed more than 24 points in two games this season. Kansas City allowed more than 24 points only once. According to our prediction, Baltimore will win 27-24. Vinnie Iyer of Jugo Mobile picked Kansas City to win 30-27.

This is a real toss-up between MVP-caliber quarterbacks.